The line-up for the first event was made by drawing lots. This is how it came out. Beckett Young Widdecombe Beith Bercow Shepherd Lord Cormack Haslehurst Dhanda Interestingly four of the first five in the betting will be on first. Quite whether this will be an advantage we will have to see. Certainly Dhanda, who’s proved himself to be an engaging communicator during the campaign, is on last. I wonder whether that might swing the odd vote and keep him…
Click for latest prices But could a late entrant act as a spoiler? The chart shows the changing prices for Next Speaker in the 24 hours from 4am yesterday to 4am today. The betting prices are shown as an implied probability. As can be seen there were quite a lot of changes in sentiment in this final day before this afternoon’s elections but as at the time of writing (4.30am) the punter view was that Margaret Beckett is going to…
Who do you think will be elected as Speaker? George Young Ann Widdecombe Richard Shepherd Michael Lord Alan Haselhurst Parmjit Dhanda Patrick Cormack Margaret Beckett John Bercow Alan Beith ****Speaker betting****
What do we make of the differing reports? Two completely different takes on Gordon Brown’s future are reported in the Sunday papers. The Mail claims that Labour sources say that “Gordon Brown may agree to step down as Prime Minister before the next General Election”, while in an interview with the News of the World, Brown himself insists that “it is because of my purpose in politics that I’m determined to lead Labour into the next election”. Meanwhile, in yesterday’s…
CON 39(+1) LAB 22(nc) LD 18 (-2) But why’s there so much variation in the Labour numbers? All but one of the Westminster polls since the June 4th elections have shown the Tories either on 39% or 40%. Where there’s been a big variation has been with the Labour shares. While all of them now have the party in the 20s and in second place the percentages range from 22% to 27% which is outside the margin of error. The…
Betfair Politics Young now beating Bercow for the third favourite slot The chart showing price movements on the Betfair betting exchange tells the story of the past 24 hours as opinion amongst punters hardens for Beckett with Young now seen as the only person who can beat her. As I write at 4.15pm it’s Beckett 2.35/1, Young 3.4/1 with Bercow now out to 4.1/1. The view seems to be that the original Labour idea of having a left-wing Tory speaker…
Might the final fence cause problems? This has to go down as one of the best contests, and best betting opportunities, we’ve had in British politics for a while. There are markets now on the number of rounds of voting that will be required, as well as for which candidate might be victorious. Betting links to support PB.com, as always, at the bottom of this article. I was trying to plot out the new election system this week, and the…
Where’s this all going to end? The crisis that has dominated UK politics for nearly two months has edged up a notch with the news that four MPs and a peer, all Labour, will face a full criminal investigation. Those are involved are named in the SkyNews report above and this development is not going to make life comfortable for several others who have had questions raised over their activities. What this does is keep the story on the front…