PB/AR poll has the swing 4.5 pc bigger in the marginals

PB/AR poll has the swing 4.5 pc bigger in the marginals

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But in the national poll the gap gets smaller Below are the shares from a new PB/Angus Reid poll based on the response a 4,004 national sample base conducted last week from Tues-Fri with 1254 in the marginals. There are three segments which have been separately past voted weighted. The sole purpose of the marginals polling is to help establish whether voters are behaving differently in the key battle-grounds as three other pollsters have suggested in recent months. What’s critical…

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Can Brown close down the “forces of hell” comment?

Can Brown close down the “forces of hell” comment?

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Or is this going to linger through the campaign? After last night’s Jeff Randall interview with Alistair Darling it was obvious that the “forces of hell” comment was going to be raised at PMQs. Cameron put it well and Brown appeared to flounder. Darling sat next to Brown and the former seemed to be trying to back his boss up. In fact they were so close that at one point Cameron commented that if the two had “sat any closer…

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Are the “forces of hell” where the story goes next?

Are the “forces of hell” where the story goes next?

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Sky News Is this a cert for PMQs today? They are back at Westminster this week and at noon we’ll see one of the few remaining PMQs before the campaign starts. With the bullying allegations and the style of the Brown Central operation being the theme of the week the Darling comments in a Sky interview last night look like keeping the pot boiling. For the Chancellor told Jeff Randall that Downing Street’s “forces of hell” were unleashed on him…

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YouGov: Both the Tories and Labour drop a point

YouGov: Both the Tories and Labour drop a point

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CON 38% (39) LAB 32% (33) LD 17%(17) No change in the lead but “others” rise These numbers have come directly from Peter Kellner and show no change in the lead. The main difference on the past three polls is the increased share going to others – a trend that we saw with ICM. There will be disappointment in Tory ranks that margin is still at the same level and that bullygate appears to have had little impact apart from,…

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Could tonight’s YouGov finally move the markets?

Could tonight’s YouGov finally move the markets?

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CON SPREAD RANGES 342 – 347 (nc) Sporting Index 346 – 349.5 (+1) Betfair Line market LAB SPREAD RANGES 218 – 223 (nc) Sporting Index 213 – 218 (nc) Betfair Line market LD SPREAD RANGES 53 – 56 (nc) Sporting Index 53.5 – 54 (nc) Betfair Line market What further evidence do gamblers need? Yesterday before the two new polls came out there was a bit of speculation on one of the threads over what would happen on the commons…

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How a 9 point lead became a 7 percent one

How a 9 point lead became a 7 percent one

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Shouldn’t poll numbers be based on responses alone? It might come as a surprise to many that the headline figures from the three main past vote weighting phone pollsters, ICM/Populus/ComRes, are not based solely on how interviewees said they would vote. For before finalising their voting intention figures each of them makes an adjustment based on what they think the quite significant numbers of “refused”/”“won’t say” respondees would have done if they had stated an intention. This can cause the…

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CONFIRMED – Tory YouGov lead still 6pc

CONFIRMED – Tory YouGov lead still 6pc

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CON 39% (39) LAB 33% (33) LD 17%(17) Peter Kellner validates the figures – ConHome was wrong I’ve just managed to get in contact with Peter Kellner and he has confirmed the above figures to me – so ConHome got it wrong. The overnight YouGov daily poll showed no change in any of the numbers from Saturday night. The fact that there is no change from Sunday must come as major set-back for the Tories – and the Lib Dems….

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