(Here is the 2010 version of what has become a great PB tradition – Roger’s Oscars Tips. Those who have followed them up with bets in previous years have almost always made money. Let’s see if this will work again next week – Mike Smithson) 2010 Oscars. Here is a list of the nominations in the main categories followed by my tips for the winners. A competitive year with very few certainties, Best Film. ‘A Serious Man’, ‘An Education’, ‘Avatar,…
(I’m on holiday in Dorset at the moment and this guest slot submitted by Flockers echoes quite a lot of comments that we are getting whenever YouGov polls are published – which is now five times a week. When I return next week I’m hoping that the firm’s Peter Kellner will take part in an online Q&A session – no doubt this will form part of the conversation. I should emphasise that these are the personal views of Flockers –…
CON 37% (40) LAB 32 % (32) LD 19% (16) MORI has the gap down to just 5 The first MORI poll for the Telegraph has more bad news for the Tories and will certainly add to the early election fervour. For the gap is down to just five points which on the conventional UNS calculators could mean Labour having most seats in a hung parliament. There’s no getting away from it – this is seriously bad news for Cameron…
CON 39% (38) LAB 33% (32) LD 16%(19) But how will it compare with tonight’s MORI poll? Tonight’s YouGov daily poll for the Sun maintains the consistency that we’ve seen for a week with Labour just six points behind the Tories. Both main parties move up one but there’s a big shift downwards for Nick Clegg’s party. At this level YouGov is suggesting that Labour have dropped just one in twelve of the voters who supported Blair’s party in 2005…
Belatedly, I can at last say that my spreadsheet model is now available to download from Google Docs. The instructions are now in the adjacent post on PB2 and in that post is a link to the model. Looking at the effects identified in my original analysis, we can now expand on the details – thanks largely to the in depth and constructive discussion on pb.com. Firstly, the “Constituency Effectâ€. I now think that this is a poor name, but…
A guest slot by Matthew Shaddick (Shadsy) Here at Ladbrokes, we’ve now had prices available for all GB constituencies for a few weeks. A first in the world of political betting. Indeed we’ve been betting on some of these contests for over a year now. What are these 632 individual markets telling us about the overall election result? We thought we’d make an attempt to predict the election from the constituency level up with all of this useful information, which…
CON 39% LAB 30% LD 22% What does this say about the Labour recovery? Harris which used to be one of the big names in British polling hasn’t done much on the political front in recent years although it made an appearance with an eve of poll survey in May 2005 which was one of the closest. According to UKPR at the last election it had the Tories bang on at 33%, Labour overstated by 2 at 38% with the…
CON 38% (38) LAB 32% (32) LD 19%(17) Only the LDs show any change Here’s the latest YouGov daily poll for tomorrow’s Sun where the fieldwork ended at 5pm this evening. Again the numbers are very stable with the bullying/ “forces of hell” narrative seemingly having no impact on the LAB-CON position. The main interest from the pollster today has been in their latest dataset which apparently points to a big change in their party ID weightings. Instead of one…