Did Brown’s party recover 30+ seats? In its post mortem of the 1992 election Labour identified a key weakness which it sought to address in all the following four elections – the critical importance of the final week. For its only then that many voters start to focus on what they’ll do and when a focused get out the vote message can be most effective. For the 1997 election the party created a special final week team. Whether they did…
? ? ? ? How did the lead drop from 6% to 2% between editions? The massive confusion over what the poll numbers actually were that we saw on the thread overnight is now becoming clear. For after the NOTW reported the 2% gap there were several posts saying the Sunday Times had it at 6%. But the Sunday Times poll findings changed between editions as those who have been watching BBC1 have been told. In the earlier ones it…
Is it healthy that one firm should be so dominant? Consider this:- The last voting intention survey from a firm other than YouGov was from ComRes and completed its fieldwork on June 27th – nearly two and a half weeks ago. There have been thirteen national YouGov polls since then – all but one of for News International which has an exclusivity arrangement with the firm for national papers. The Daily Telegraph has not had a regular pollster since February…
CON 37% (39) LAB 35% (33) LD 17%(16) Gordon could still get his five more years According to the News of the World the latest daily poll from YouGov has the above figures which would probably mean that Labour would end up with most seats. This has now been confirmed by the Sunday Times itself – story here. This is a fantastic poll for Labour who, almost unbelievably, are now only per percent down on what they were at the…
Ipsos-Mori Will the lead continue to tighten? It’s Saturday night and that should bring two things – the latest polls and the second instalment of the Andrew Rawnsley book in the Observer. One thing that hits you when you look at the table above is that only the YouGov daily poll has tested opinion since bullygate and the Darling “forces of hell” statement. All the other surveys that have been published this week have been quite old. I’ve no idea…
Morus wonders what would happen if… Imagine that the polls narrow just a little more over the course of a blood-spattered, mud-flinging General Election campaign of only 17 working days that leaves no time for clarity and perspective. Imagine that quirks of turnout and minor party support combine with a decent Lib Dem showing to befuddle the best laid plans of Mice and Men. Imagine that the Conservatives, in spite of winning the largest percentage of the vote, are not…
Can the SNP reverse Labour’s fightback? With not particularly subtle timing, Alex Salmond launched on Thursday the Scottish government’s bill to put a referendum questions on independence and greater powers for the Scottish parliament – close to three years since taking office and within a few weeks of a UK general election campaign. The SNP sailed into government close to the crest of their support: in the election, they won 33% of the constituency vote and 31% of the regional…
Do the underlying numbers point to a different conclusion? Just been looking at the detailed dataset from the the Telegraph’s Ipsos-MORI poll that came out late last night and in my view the underlying numbers are nothing like as good for Labour as the five point Tory lead might suggest. After weighting for standard demographics we find that: 300 of those certain to vote in the sample said they had supported Labour at the last general election. Yet only 236…