PB/AR poll has the swing 4.5 pc bigger in the marginals

PB/AR poll has the swing 4.5 pc bigger in the marginals

But in the national poll the gap gets smaller

Below are the shares from a new PB/Angus Reid poll based on the response a 4,004 national sample base conducted last week from Tues-Fri with 1254 in the marginals. There are three segments which have been separately past voted weighted.

The sole purpose of the marginals polling is to help establish whether voters are behaving differently in the key battle-grounds as three other pollsters have suggested in recent months.

What’s critical is how the swing in the marginals compared with the overall national position.

The overall national picture
This is from the full sample and shows comparison with the last PB/Angus Reid poll
CON 38% (40)
LAB 26% (26)
LD 19% (18)

So although the base figures are a bit different the trend is the same as from other firms. Nationally the gap between the Tories and Labour is getting smaller and the 12% deficit is the best Labour position since the PB/Angus Reid polling series started last October.

The LAB>CON swing from the general election in the national poll is 7.5%

The LAB-CON marginals
This is based on polling in Labour 150 most vulnerable seats where the shares in 2005 were C33:L43:LD17.

CON 42% (33)
LAB 28% (43)
LD 15% (17)

So overall these shares equate to a 12% LAB>CON swing since the 2005 general election which is 4.5% higher than the overall national swing – further evidence that the marginals are performing very differently.

The LD held seats
This is based on polling in all the Lib Dem seats from 2005 where the aggregate shares then were C29:L19:LD46

CON 33% (29)
LAB 16% (19)
LD 39% (46)

These equate to a LD>CON swing of 5.5% which won’t make comfortable reading for Nick Clegg’s party.

I think that overall these are important findings and do support everything we have seen from the marginals from YouGov, ICM, and Ipsos-MORI. The key marginals – most of them seats picked up in Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide are seeing disproportionate moves to the Tories.

UPDATE: The dataset is available here.

Mike Smithson

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