CON 38% (39)
LAB 32% (33)
No change in the lead but “others” rise
These numbers have come directly from Peter Kellner and show no change in the lead. The main difference on the past three polls is the increased share going to others – a trend that we saw with ICM.
There will be disappointment in Tory ranks that margin is still at the same level and that bullygate appears to have had little impact apart from, maybe, turning voters off from the main parties.
Because of the way that this poll is being done we should not expect the volatility that we became accustomed to in the conference season last autumn.
The next big polling news will be the long-awaited marginals poll from Angus Reid which should be available during Wednesday. This covers both LAB-CON contests and those involving the Lib Dems.
Will it show disproportionate moves as other data from the marginals has suggested? I’ll get it up just as soon as I have it.