CON 39% (38) LAB 33% (32) LD 16%(19) But how will it compare with tonight’s MORI poll? Tonight’s YouGov daily poll for the Sun maintains the consistency that we’ve seen for a week with Labour just six points behind the Tories. Both main parties move up one but there’s a big shift downwards for Nick Clegg’s party. At this level YouGov is suggesting that Labour have dropped just one in twelve of the voters who supported Blair’s party in 2005…
Belatedly, I can at last say that my spreadsheet model is now available to download from Google Docs. The instructions are now in the adjacent post on PB2 and in that post is a link to the model. Looking at the effects identified in my original analysis, we can now expand on the details – thanks largely to the in depth and constructive discussion on pb.com. Firstly, the “Constituency Effectâ€. I now think that this is a poor name, but…
A guest slot by Matthew Shaddick (Shadsy) Here at Ladbrokes, we’ve now had prices available for all GB constituencies for a few weeks. A first in the world of political betting. Indeed we’ve been betting on some of these contests for over a year now. What are these 632 individual markets telling us about the overall election result? We thought we’d make an attempt to predict the election from the constituency level up with all of this useful information, which…
CON 39% LAB 30% LD 22% What does this say about the Labour recovery? Harris which used to be one of the big names in British polling hasn’t done much on the political front in recent years although it made an appearance with an eve of poll survey in May 2005 which was one of the closest. According to UKPR at the last election it had the Tories bang on at 33%, Labour overstated by 2 at 38% with the…
CON 38% (38) LAB 32% (32) LD 19%(17) Only the LDs show any change Here’s the latest YouGov daily poll for tomorrow’s Sun where the fieldwork ended at 5pm this evening. Again the numbers are very stable with the bullying/ “forces of hell” narrative seemingly having no impact on the LAB-CON position. The main interest from the pollster today has been in their latest dataset which apparently points to a big change in their party ID weightings. Instead of one…
But in the national poll the gap gets smaller Below are the shares from a new PB/Angus Reid poll based on the response a 4,004 national sample base conducted last week from Tues-Fri with 1254 in the marginals. There are three segments which have been separately past voted weighted. The sole purpose of the marginals polling is to help establish whether voters are behaving differently in the key battle-grounds as three other pollsters have suggested in recent months. What’s critical…
Or is this going to linger through the campaign? After last night’s Jeff Randall interview with Alistair Darling it was obvious that the “forces of hell” comment was going to be raised at PMQs. Cameron put it well and Brown appeared to flounder. Darling sat next to Brown and the former seemed to be trying to back his boss up. In fact they were so close that at one point Cameron commented that if the two had “sat any closer…
Sky News Is this a cert for PMQs today? They are back at Westminster this week and at noon we’ll see one of the few remaining PMQs before the campaign starts. With the bullying allegations and the style of the Brown Central operation being the theme of the week the Darling comments in a Sky interview last night look like keeping the pot boiling. For the Chancellor told Jeff Randall that Downing Street’s “forces of hell” were unleashed on him…