CON 38% (39) LAB 32% (33) LD 17%(17) No change in the lead but “others” rise These numbers have come directly from Peter Kellner and show no change in the lead. The main difference on the past three polls is the increased share going to others – a trend that we saw with ICM. There will be disappointment in Tory ranks that margin is still at the same level and that bullygate appears to have had little impact apart from,…
CON SPREAD RANGES 342 – 347 (nc) Sporting Index 346 – 349.5 (+1) Betfair Line market LAB SPREAD RANGES 218 – 223 (nc) Sporting Index 213 – 218 (nc) Betfair Line market LD SPREAD RANGES 53 – 56 (nc) Sporting Index 53.5 – 54 (nc) Betfair Line market What further evidence do gamblers need? Yesterday before the two new polls came out there was a bit of speculation on one of the threads over what would happen on the commons…
Shouldn’t poll numbers be based on responses alone? It might come as a surprise to many that the headline figures from the three main past vote weighting phone pollsters, ICM/Populus/ComRes, are not based solely on how interviewees said they would vote. For before finalising their voting intention figures each of them makes an adjustment based on what they think the quite significant numbers of “refused”/”“won’t say” respondees would have done if they had stated an intention. This can cause the…
I’m at a conference in London and won’t be able to prepare a fresh thread until later. Please continue the discussion here,
CON 39% (39) LAB 33% (33) LD 17%(17) Peter Kellner validates the figures – ConHome was wrong I’ve just managed to get in contact with Peter Kellner and he has confirmed the above figures to me – so ConHome got it wrong. The overnight YouGov daily poll showed no change in any of the numbers from Saturday night. The fact that there is no change from Sunday must come as major set-back for the Tories – and the Lib Dems….
My apologies if I was wrong All the previous header on the latest YouGov daily poll for the Sun has been deleted as a precautionary measure because I have no idea whether the poll numbers are correct or not. I had based the piece, written in the early hours, on a posting by Tim Montgomerie on ConservativeHome who, I assumed had the correct numbers. For the chairman of the company that owns that site and a big share-holder is Stephan…
CON 41% (39) LAB 29% (33) LD 19%(17) Is Labour paying the price for “BullyGate”? So there we have it, the latest YouGov daily poll as reported by Conservativehome with comparisons on the YouGov daily poll that was published on Saturday night for the following day’s Sunday Times. The turnaround is really quite extraordinary especially as the YouGov gap then was seen in the same area only a few hours ago in the February ICM poll for the Guardian. So…
Or will “BullyGate” boost the blues? In an hour or so we’ll get the YouGov daily poll for the Sun and the Tories must be hoping that it’ll show a reversal in the trend of recent weeks. The fieldwork started at 5pm last night and finished at 5pm this evening – so it’s pretty up to date – and is likely to have Labour benefiting much less from the after-glow of their Warwick gathering at the weekend. It will also…