Opinium (Daily Express) Mar 29 Mar 22 CONSERVATIVES 38% 37% LABOUR 28% 30% LIB DEMS 16% 15% LAB to CON swing from 2005 6.5% 5% Another poll has Brown’s party falling further behind The first of what I expect to be three polls tonight, new pollster Opinium for the Daily Express, conitnues the trend of all the weekend surveys and has Labour’s deficit getting bigger. The gap is now ten points and the shares on the simplified UNS rule of…
Ipsos-MORI In how many seats could tactical voting be decisive? The above data from last week’s marginals poll from the MORI poll of the marginals shows that an incredible 77% of LD supporters might switch by polling day in seats where Labour and the Tories are battling it out. Clearly the more this is framed as a battle between Brown and Cameron the more that this segment will become important. The critical questions are how many will switch and which…
Did Darling’s budget provide him with the peg? Making tax announcements so close to the date is a big risk and no doubt Labour will be working hard at finding the holes so they they can start to undermine it straight away. But the line that Labour has identified billions of efficiency saving as revealed in Darling’s budget gives the Tories some cover – at least for the next few hours. The addition of Ken Clarke alongside Osborne and Hammond…
Might June 3rd just be back on the agenda? One thing’s for certain as we move towards the long Easter weekend – a final decision has to be taken in the next few days by Gordon, and by Gordon alone, if he is to set the wheels in motion for a May 6th general election. However much a foregone conclusion this might appear he has still got to decide and on this might rest any chance that Labour has of…
I’m delighted that Marf, PB’s cartoonist from far back, is making a return – after all we could not do without her sharp observation and biting satire during the campaign. She’ll be one of many PBers who are attending Wednesday’s London event at Dirty Dicks opposite Liverpool Street station. It starts at at 6.30pm and I’ve suggested that she brings along some prints and originals of her PB work in case anybody wants to acquire one. Radio 4’s Westminster Hour….
Is it all down to the colours of the current FA cup holders? Ipsos-MORI Thanks to Roger Mortimore of Ipsos-MORI for coming up with this fun approach. He wrote:- “….All you have to do to predict which of the major parties will have an overall majority in the Commons following the election is to note the shirt colours usually worn by the current holders (on election day) of the FA Cup. If their shirts are predominantly in the Conservative colours…
Would they be doing this now but for the polls? The ads above are the first from Tory party’s new releationship with M&C Saatchi who, now doubt, have done a lot of research on what images of the PM most suit their purpose. It was inevitable that at some stage during the camapign that the Tories would play what they believe is their strongest card – Gordon Brown’s unpopularity. For even during the recent Labour recovery in the polls the…
YG daily poll: Sunday Times Mar 26 Mar 25 CONSERVATIVES 37% 37% LABOUR 32% 33% LIB DEMS 19% 18% LAB to CON swing from 2005 4% 3.5% YG/BPIX: Mail on Sunday Mar 26 Mar 5 CONSERVATIVES 37% 36% LABOUR 30% 34% LIB DEMS 20% 18% LAB to CON swing from 2005 5% 2.5% Two further polls add to the picture After the ICM poll earlier showing an increase in the Tory lead from 6 to 8 points we are getting…