ICM News of the World Mar 26 Mar 19 CONSERVATIVES 39% 38% LABOUR 31% 32% LIB DEMS 19% 19% LAB to CON swing from 2005 5.5% 4.5% Wiil this bring welcome relief to the blues? The above figures are being reported by SkyNews and give the Tories an eighrt point lead which is probably enough to secure a small overall majority. This follows a week dominated by the YouGov daily polls which had the gap down to just two points…
How many will watch and what’ll be the impact? It’s almost certain that one of the highlights of the coming election will be the series of debates between the main party leaders. Working out how much the debates will impact on the election campaign is largely a judgement call but a crucial one. Britain has little experience of this sort of thing. The closest the country has is the weekly Prime Minister’s Questions but they are frequent, formulaic, limited in…
Angus Reid But the pollster diverges with ComRes on who is most trusted There’ve been two polls on reactions to the budget – one earlier from ComRes and the latest, where fieldwork continued into Friday, from Angus Reid. The panel above has two of the findings. Another AR question related to how the public rated Brown and Cameron on these matters. These findings are in sharp contrast to a poll earlier from ComRes. When asked who voters trusted most to…
Welcome back – we’ve missed you It’s been quite a long time since we’ve published anything from Marf – PB’s cartoonist who built up her reputation in Canada and on the Evening Standard. She’s been involved in a major publishing project which is now coming to an end – and I’m hoping that she can apply her acute observations and scathing satire to the political scene in the UK as we go into the election campaign. If anybody wants to…
Seat spreads CON LAB LD SportingIndex 324-329 (-2) 229-234 (+2) 56-59 (nc) Extrabet 319-324 (-8) 234-239 (+8) 58-61 (nc) Betfair 327.5-331.5 231,5-234.5 54.5-55 Mike Smithson
Won’t it hurt those least likely to benefit? “90% of the country to be given broadband access, enabling faster internet services, to be funded by a 50p a month tax on those who have phone lines” Share Good idea 39% Bad idea 49% Don’t know 12% PoliticsHome budget poll March 26 There’s an interesting negative response in the Politics Home budget poll to Labour’s plan to fund the expansion of broadband by putting a tax of 50p a month on…
Who’ll be the most “creative” with the use of numbers? With tactical voting looking set to play a crucial and possibly decisive role in the coming battle this could be the general election of the bar chart. These are deployed by campaigners of all colours to persuade supporters of other candidates in specific seats that their choice does not stand a chance and that they offer the ONLY WAY OF BEATING/STOPPING XYX in that constituency. Mostly the appeal will be…
YouGov daily poll (The Sun) Mar 25 Mar 24 CONSERVATIVES 37% 36% LABOUR 33% 34% LIB DEMS 18% 17% LAB to CON swing from 2005 3.5% 2.5% Mike Smithson