Ipsos-MORI Is 4.5 years as opposition leader just too long? One of the key sets of figures that overseas pundits always look for are the approval ratings and, indeed, the most linked to PB post from the US this week has been that on the huge rise in Clegg’s rating. Clearly there’s a stark contrast between the Clegg and Cameron position and doubt the Tory leader will have learned lessons from the first debate and step up his game tonight…
Could this be a trap for the Tory leader? As we get closer to each of the debates all three participants have been positioning themselves on issues that might come up. Thanks to David Blackburn on the Speccie CoffeeHouse blog for highlighting this one – Nick Clegg’s offer yesterday to hold a full “in or out” referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU. This, of course, has been one of the key demands of UKIP – and could supporters of…
Will this reverse the polling surge? One of the ongoing moans of the Liberal Democrats was the challenge they face in getting the attention of the media. Well they can’t complain this morning. For now the attention is moving off the volcanic dust story Nick Clegg faces the full force of the tabloids with one paper after another firing salvo after salvo at him and his party. The question is whether it’s going to have an impact? Are the papers…
Or could Clegg turn it to his advantage? So here it is – the big story about Clegg that we’ve been promised all evening. It’s hard to comment without seeing the details and a lot depends on how Clegg himself handles it. The danger for those trying to burst the Lib Dem bubble is if the substance of the claim doesn’t quite live up to the billing Let’s see how this plays out. Mike Smithson
Election betting from the new political betting exchange Smarkets or from Ladbrokes. Mike Smithson
You can see more of Marf’s work at LondonSketchbook.com TNS-BRMB sees 8 point LD boost A new poll from face-to-face pollster TNS-BRMB is just out and has figures broadly in line with the rest. Please note that perhaps a third 12% of the fieldwork took place BEFORE the debate. TNS-BRMB Apr 20 Apr 13 CONSERVATIVES 34% 36% LIB DEMS 30% 22% LABOUR 29% 33% Tories back in the lead with YouGov YouGov Daily Poll – Sun Apr 21 Apr 20…
Ipsos-MORI Is this the trend we should be looking at? PB regulars will be aware that one of the sets of monthly data that I take seriously is the above from MORI – the leader approval ratings. These have been asked in precisely the same form since the late 1970s and have proved to be an equal if not better guide to general election outcomes than the standard voting intention findings. Given that the latest MORI poll was carried out…
MORI Evening Standard Apr 20 Mar 22 CONSERVATIVES 32% 35% LIB DEMS 32% 21% LABOUR 28% 30% Another poll – another third place for Labour After the ComRes poll which had actually been completed on Monday night we now have MORI where the fieldwork ended yesterday. As can be seen it is in the same broad territory as other recent polls and adds further weight to the view that Lib Dem surge is being sustained. ComRes and its nine point…