It’s now 42/38/11 Tonight’s News International-funded daily poll by YouGov has the Lib Dems down to 11 percent – a level the party has only touched once before since the general election. The shares are: CON 42% LAB 38%: LD 11%. The fieldwork will mostly have taken place before Clegg’s speech this afternoon but after a weekend when the party was getting a high level of attention in the media. If this is mirrored in the next ICM poll then…
Is he going to take his party with him?
Contender Overall % Inner London Outer London Boris Johnson 45 33 52 Ken Livingstone 27 32 24 Oona King 9 11 7 None 19 24 27 How big a task is this for Labour? With voting due to close on Wednesday in Labour’s election to choose a London mayoral candidate there’s what I think is the very first poll on the 2012 election by ComRes for the London Evening Standard. The numbers show the importance of incumbency and even if…
Was it designed to make Nick’s conference easier? What’s likely to produce the loudest applause during Nick Clegg’s big speech this afternoon will be when he makes clear that the coalition deal is for one parliament only and that there will be no pact with the Tories at the next election. For the prospect that something might just be on the agenda has been simmering since last Monday following the publication of a book in which the idea is floated…
Dagens Nyheter Are the Social Democrats heading for a historic defeat? Today’s election in Sweden looks set to see the return of a centre-right government for the first time in decades, perhaps alongside the Social Democrats failing to top the poll for the first time in about a century. A possible fly in the ointment for a Reinfeldt second term is the rightwing Sweden Democrats breaking the 4% threhsold to secure seats in the Riksdag. If you haven’t already read…
Market Odds Nick Clegg to be next PM 20/1 Nick Clegg to join Tories before next election 10/1 Nick Clegg NOT to be leader at 2011 Conference 5/1 2+ LD MPs to form breakaway party before next election 10/1 Or are they just Ladbrokes fund-raising schemes? Ever keen to find new ways to tempt us to part with our money Ladbrokes have put up the above range of market. I’d like a price on the eventuality of none of them…
Telegraph Is Ashcroft naive to think that this was an option? The Sunday Telegraph is leading with details of the strong attack on the way Cameron and his team handled the election campaign in a report from controversial Tory donor, Michael Ashcroft, which is being published this week. Given the way that his party’s double digit poll lead disappeared from Christmas 2009 onwards there is a lot in what he says about message and tactics. But from paper’s report Ashcroft…
Betfair Politics Could there be a cross-over? The chart shows the Betfair prices, expressed as percentages, on what’s happening in the Labour race in which voting finishes on Wednesday at 5pm. I don’t think we’ll see another YouGov poll though it’s possible that one might have been commissioned. The moves over the past week have been driven by last Saturday’s survey for the Sunday Times. William Hill has reported that four out of every five bets it has laid on…