How worried should the government be about Interest Rates? The era of ultra low interest rates appears to be coming to an end. Recently, analysts have claimed that rate rises are now not only possible but “inevitableâ€. How dangerous is this for the government? We got used to low and stable interest rates under Labour. If rates rise, it will undoubtedly come as a shock to many. But there are also increasing numbers of people who will benefit. Is the…
How dangerous is the Libyan situation for the world? By far the biggest global story today has been eruption of violence in Libya as protesters seek to do to their leader what was done to Mubarak in Egypt earlier in the month. With reports of up to 200 people being killed in what are being termed “massacres” it’s clear that the situation is highly febrile and potentially very dangerous. It appears that the reaction by the Gaddafi regime has been…
Is it a holding role or a prelude to reform? The likely appointment of former Conservative Party Chairman, Governor of Hong Kong and EU Commissioner, Chris Patten, to be the next chairman of the BBC Trust is likely to be a controversial one. It’s not the first time that the senior board member has been an active politician (the very first chairman of the board of governors had only recently been a government chief whip when appointed), but certainly renews…
Latest AV referendum polls Date YES % NO % Question wording YouGov/Sun No2AV 17/02/11 34 30 Bespoke wording – which might have been changed for this latest poll (see updates below) Populus/Times 18/02/11 41 29 Actual wording on the ballot Angus Reid/ 16/02/11 37 (nc) 21 (+1) Actual wording on the ballot ComRes/Indy on Sunday 10/02/11 36 (+4) 30 (nc) Actual wording on the ballot ICM/Guardian 19/12/10 44 38 Actual wording on the ballot Details of the latest YouGov poll…
(Every year on PB Roger gives us his Oscar predictions and betting advice. Those who who’ve followed his analysis have generally come out as winners – let’s hope it’s the same this year – MS) Where are the awards going to go? A great year for British films which I hope can withstand the philistinism of this Tory government. Stjohn asked if I could suggest value bets so where two films are close I’ll suggest he takes a punt on…
Latest AV referendum polls Date YES % NO % Question wording Populus/Times 18/02/11 41 29 Actual wording on the ballot Angus Reid/ 16/02/11 37 (nc) 21 (+1) Actual wording on the ballot ComRes/Indy on Sunday 10/02/11 36 (+4) 30 (nc) Actual wording on the ballot YouGov/Sun 07/02/11 38 (+6) 39 (-2) Bespoke wording – referring to the fact that this is a proposal from the Conservative-Lib Dem coalition ICM/Guardian 19/12/10 44 38 Actual wording on the ballot But a different…
The referendum: What are the polls telling us? Looking at the the detailed data from recent AV polls there are two clear trends – the older age groups (55+) are much less likely to support change and Labour voters from the general election are the most undecided. Thursday’s survey for Angus Reid had YES leading with a 37-22 point split. Yet amongst the 55+ group the lead was down to just one point with YES on 34 and NO on…
The Irish Election – Part 2 If Fianna Fáil were hoping for a boost in the polls as the election campaign builds up under their new leader Micheál Martin, they will have been disappointed by the latest polls. Last weekend’s RedC poll put the party’s first-preference support even lower than the previous week’s: Fianna Fáil 15% (-2) Fine Gael 38% (+3) Labour 20% (-2) Green 3% (+1) Sinn Féin 10% (-3) Other 14% (+3). A Millward-Brown poll published Tuesday was…