Has YouGov’s AV polling question been overtaken by events?

Has YouGov’s AV polling question been overtaken by events?

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Shouldn’t last week have led to a re-wording? This is the precise wording of the YouGov AV referendum question that was asked yesterday and the results published last night. “The Conservative-Liberal Democrat government are committed to holding a referendum on changing the electoral system from first-past-thepost (FPTP) to the Alternative Vote (AV) At the moment, under first-past-the-post (FPTP), voters select ONE candidate, and the candidate with the most votes wins. It has been suggested that this system should be replaced…

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Can NO build on its strong start?

Can NO build on its strong start?

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Will YouGov add to YES’s misery? With just ten weeks and one day left before the country votes in the referendum a new survey of members of the YouGov polling panel found that YES has dropped to 34% with NO edging up to 41%. The firm used what has been its standard question which when put last produced a 37-37 response. So with this week’s two polls both showing a move to NO it looks as though those opposed to…

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Why YouGov and ICM seem to produce different figures

Why YouGov and ICM seem to produce different figures

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Methodology comparison YouGov ICM Sampling Sample is restricted to members of its polling panel – those who have registered with the firm and on whom the firm has a mass of data. The firm polls by phone making randomised calls to residential phone numbers throughout Britain. Theoretically anybody with a land-line can take part in a survey. Political weighting To ensure balanced samples this is done by party ID based on the firm’s own data. This can be controversial –…

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Was Campbell wrong about Osborne’s “blame Labour” mantra?

Was Campbell wrong about Osborne’s “blame Labour” mantra?

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Which is most to blame for the cuts? (YouGov) CON-LD coalition Last Labour government Both of them Neither 21/02/11 25 41 24 5 07/02/11 25 38 26 6 25/01/11 26 40 24 5 10/01/11 22 40 25 8 11/12/10 23 41 24 7 15/11/10 22 43 23 7 07/10/10 17 47 20 10 20/09/10 21 44 22 7 06/09/10 22 45 20 6 31/08/10 23 45 20 6 16/08/10 22 45 21 6 02/08/10 22 45 20 6 19/07/10 21…

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Could this be Gaddafi’s last day in power?

Could this be Gaddafi’s last day in power?

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Aljazeera What’s the significance for Britain, Europe and the World? After a 22 second appearance on TV last night it seems that Gaddafi’s grip on his country could be coming to an end. Libyan ambassadors in many countries have already dissociated themselves from the Tripoli regime while a number of Libyan air force pilots have flown their planes to other countries. There comes a moment at times like this when a regime’s authority collapses and that seems to be happening…

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Big boost for NO in new ICM poll

Big boost for NO in new ICM poll

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Latest AV referendum polls Date YES % NO % Methodology note ICM/Guardian 20/02/11 37 (-7) 37 (-1) Actual wording on the ballot, phone poll, past voted weighted. With turnout filter the results was YES 51% NO 49% YouGov/Sun 18/02/11 34 (-5) 30 (-9) Bespoke wording, online, polling restricted to members of its polling panel. Politically weighted via party ID and newspaper type. Populus/Times 18/02/11 41 29 Actual wording on the ballot, phone poll, past voted weighted. Angus Reid/ 16/02/11 37…

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Does Labour need to de-toxify its brand?

Does Labour need to de-toxify its brand?

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Has the former party gen sec got this right? There’s an interesting piece on Labour-Uncut from Peter Watt, former party general secretary, about what he see as the need for Labour to “de-toxify” its brand – the phrase that came to be so associated with the blue team. He writes: “..We lost the general election because we were seen as being arrogant and out of touch. We lost because we were seen as being economically illiterate and having massively overspent….

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Is Rawnsley right – “Thickos” could save Britain from AV?

Is Rawnsley right – “Thickos” could save Britain from AV?

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AV poll (YouGov) Total % Male % Female % 18-24 % 25-39 % 40-59 % 60+ % ABC1 % C2DE % Support AV 34 40 30 39 34 34 33 37 31 Oppose AV 30 34 26 19 19 33 40 30 29 Not sure 36 26 45 42 47 33 27 33 40 Will it be the C2s, Ds and Es who are decisive? The above data is from the NO2AV YouGov poll that was published over the weekend…

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