Big boost for NO in new ICM poll
| Latest AV referendum polls | Date | YES % | NO % | Methodology note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICM/Guardian | 20/02/11 | 37 (-7) | 37 (-1) | Actual wording on the ballot, phone poll, past voted weighted. With turnout filter the results was YES 51% NO 49% |
| YouGov/Sun | 18/02/11 | 34 (-5) | 30 (-9) | Bespoke wording, online, polling restricted to members of its polling panel. Politically weighted via party ID and newspaper type. |
| Populus/Times | 18/02/11 | 41 | 29 | Actual wording on the ballot, phone poll, past voted weighted. |
| Angus Reid/ | 16/02/11 | 37 (nc) | 21 (+1) | Actual wording on the ballot, online, polling restricted to members of its polling panel. Politically weighted via past vote and newspaper type. |
| ComRes/Indy on Sunday | 10/02/11 | 36 (+4) | 30 (nc) | Actual wording on the ballot |
And the LDs Westminster VI share moves to 18%
| Poll/publication | End date | CON (%) | LAB (%) | LD (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICM Guardian | 20/02/11 | 35 | 38 | 18 |
| ICM Guardian | 23/01/11 | 35 | 39 | 15 |
| ICM Guardian | 19/12/10 | 37 | 39 | 13 |
| ICM Guardian | 21/11/10 | 36 | 38 | 14 |
| ICM/Guardian | 24/10/10 | 39 | 36 | 16 |
| ICM/NOTW | 22/10/10 | 40 | 36 | 16 |
| ICM/Sunday Telegraph | 07/10/10 | 38 | 34 | 18 |
| ICM/Guardian | 29/09/10 | 35 | 37 | 18 |
| ICM/Guardian | 15/08/10 | 37 | 37 | 18 |
| ICM/Guardian | 25/07/10 | 38 | 34 | 19 |
| ICM/Sunday Telegraph | 24/06/10 | 41 | 35 | 16 |
| ICM/Guardian | 20/06/10 | 39 | 31 | 21 |
| ICM/Guardian | 23/05/10 | 39 | 32 | 21 |
| ICM/Sunday Telegraph | 13/05/10 | 38 | 33 | 21 |
A dramatic new poll from ICM for tomorrow’s Guardian is just out and has good news for both the NO campaign in the referendum and for the Lib Dems on Westminster voting intention.
The AV numbers are above and show the very big drop in the YES share since the last ICM poll on the subject in December. This, from the top ranking pollster, must give the NO side real heart as they move into the campaign.
Interestingly this comes in the same poll that has the Lib Dems moving to their highest share in any survey since September and, at 18%, is showing a figure that is completely out of line with the other companies.
Significantly ICM found that YES supporters were more likely to turnout than no ones. The split after this filter was 51-49.
I wonder whether both big changes are due to the same event – the completion of the AV bill unscathed through parliament. The yellows get a boost through seeing one of their long-term objectives partially coming about while the NOs get a boost as people start focussing on the issue itself.
The poll also suggests that YES will do much better provided that Nick Clegg maintains a low profile. His presence could cause Labour supporters in particualr not to turn out or vote for the change.