|Latest AV referendum polls||Date||YES %||NO %||Question wording|
||17/02/11||34||30||Bespoke wording â€“ which might have been changed for this latest poll (see updates below)|
|Populus/Times||18/02/11||41||29||Actual wording on the ballot|
|Angus Reid/||16/02/11||37 (nc)||21 (+1)||Actual wording on the ballot|
|ComRes/Indy on Sunday||10/02/11||36 (+4)||30 (nc)||Actual wording on the ballot|
|ICM/Guardian||19/12/10||44||38||Actual wording on the ballot|
Details of the latest YouGov poll for the Sunday Times are trickling out and the pollster is reporting a big change in its findings on the AV referendum. As can be seen from the table both YES and NO have dropped but the latter by a lot more.
This is the first time since August that the online pollster has reported a YES lead and this might have been due to a revised wording of the question.
But it’s not all good news for YES. The poll found a completely different response when those questioned were told the cost. Then it went 53 -22.
Before jumping to to many conclusions here we do need to see the wording and context of both questions.
The latest voting intention numbers are CON 37%: LAB 41%: LD 10% – so Labour moving back sharply from that 10 point lead reported earlier in the week.
UPDATE 0300: Although the detail from the poll has not been released yet my understanding is that the following was the wording of the referendum question:-
“In May this year there will be a referendum on changing the way Britain votes in general elections from the current system, known as â€œFirst Past the Postâ€, to a different electoral system called the â€œAlternative Voteâ€. In PRINCIPLE, do you support or oppose changing the electoral system from First Past the Post to the Alternative Vote?â€
So this is NOT the wording that will be on the ballot unlike all the other pollsters that have been testing opinion on the referendum.
SECOND UPDATE 0820 The No2Av campaign have contacted me to say that this was a poll commissioned by them and was NOT part of the normal YouGov series – so comparisons with earlier polls from the online pollster are not valid. The second question read:-
Some people have claimed that the cost of running the referendum campaigns, holding the referendum and switching the electoral system from â€œFirst Past the Postâ€ to the â€œAlternative Voteâ€ could be as much as Â£250 million. Other people have disputed this cost. With this in mind, would you support or oppose changing the electoral system from First Past the Post to the Alternative Vote?
If I had had the poll detail last night I would have written the piece differently.