Online polls rule. OK? Online polls are taking over the UK polling industry. So far in 2011 no less than 96 vote intention polls have been published, 84 of which have been conducted online, just 12 by telephone. Of the 84 online polls 63 (and counting …) have been conducted by YouGov, 21 by others. On average, telephone polls have had the Conservatives and Labour each around 1.5% lower than online polls and perhaps most significantly for the tone of…
Why are so many being given a free ride? We’ll have to wait until the official lists are published tomorrow but the big trend developing overnight in the May 5th local elections is that hundreds of seats are not being contested. There’s been one comment after another like these on last night’s threads:- Middle Englander:” Wychavon, Worcestershire: 45 seat council 12 Conservatives returned unopposed and 3 assured compared to just 2 assured in 2007 1 Lib Dem returned unopposed, the…
Now something for the NO campaigners to smile about A new Populus poll for the Times just out has a YES 47% to NO 53% split amongst decided voters. (NOTE that in line with PB practice the figure were use are re-percentaged so proper comparison can be made with other surveys.) This will come as a blow to the YES camp just after a YouGov poll suggested that opinion was moving in the other direction. As yet we have not…
Latest AV referendum polls using the question that’s on the ballot Date YES % NO % Methodology note – all figures re-percentaged to show decided voters only YouGov/Sun Times 01/04/11 52 (+1) 48 (-1) Findings weighted according to likelihood to vote. Comparisons are with last poll on March 18. Politically weighted via party ID and newspaper type. Angus Reid/ 20/03/11 51 (-4) 49 (+4) No turnout weighting. Comparison with last poll for AR on March 3. Politically weighted via past…
Could a big increase be good news for the blues? At midday nominations closed for the council elections that will take place in most of England on May 5th When they are published we’ll get our first indicators of how Labour is approaching the coming fight and also about the current health of the party. Harriet Harman’s goal is that the red team will have more candidates for up to 30 years. The chart above shows what’s happened in five…
Jonathan looks at the toll of being in government David Cameron looks tired. Â At the last PMQs the Prime Minister was not on top form. Arguably he has started to show symptoms of exhaustion. Other ministers are faring little better. It is perhaps understandable. Even before Libya, the workload undertaken by this administration was daunting. After less than one year in office is this government already exhausted? At PMQs this week the Prime Minister was not at his best. He…
But how important is the recognition factor? There’s a new Scottish poll out in the Sunday Times by PanelBase – a pollster that I have not heard of before. The voting intention figures are in the revised Scottish voting table below and show an SNP lead of five points in the regional section while level-pegging with Labour in the constituency one. An interesting variant is that poll participants were shown pictures of the party leaders and were asked whether they…
Is Clegg about to jump onto the Lansley Lifeboat? The main story in the Indy on Sunday is a report, described as an exclusive, by Matt Chorley and Nina Lakhani that David Cameron will announce this week that the brakes are to be put on Andrew Lansley’s controversial NHS reforms. The report states: “… Mr Cameron will publicly admit to mistakes in the plan by the Secretary of State, Andrew Lansley, to hand £80bn of health spending to family doctors,…