YouGov YES lead moves up to 4 percent

YouGov YES lead moves up to 4 percent

Latest AV referendum polls using the question that’s on the ballot Date YES % NO % Methodology note – all figures re-percentaged to show decided voters only
YouGov/Sun Times 01/04/11 52 (+1) 48 (-1) Findings weighted according to likelihood to vote. Comparisons are with last poll on March 18. Politically weighted via party ID and newspaper type.
Angus Reid/ 20/03/11 51 (-4) 49 (+4) No turnout weighting. Comparison with last poll for AR on March 3. Politically weighted via past vote and newspaper type. Online
ComRes/Indy on Sunday 09/03/11 50 50 Shows shares from ComRes data-set not press release. Onlne
Ipsos-MORI Reuters 20/02/11 55 45 Phone poll with only those “certain to vote” included.
ICM/Guardian 20/02/11 51 49 Phone poll, past voted weighted. Figures show split after turnout weighting

In Scotland it’s two to one in favour

The first referendum poll of the month is out with the publication of the full data from the Sunday Times YouGov survey. Stripping out the don’t knows the decided voter split is now 52-48 – so still very close and in line with other polling.

Critical in this election is turnout and the YES camp will be encouraged by the 2 to 1 split amongst Scottish voters.

On May 5th the referendum takes place alongside the Holyrood Parliament elections where we can expect a turnout level approaching the mid-50s. Elsewhere it’s expected to be much lower.

North of the border, of course, they have been using PR-type system to elect MSPs for years so there’s a familiarity with non-FPTP voting.

The NO campaign will be cheered by the age splits showing that YES is heavily reliant on younger voters who are less likely to turn out.

I still think this is a 50-50 shot and I want to see some telephone polling – all the recent surveys have been online.

The weekly leadership ratings in the poll show a recovery by Ed Miliband and a slipping back by both Cameron and Clegg.

Mike Smithson

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