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Have ICM cracked the turnout question? Julian Glover has just tweeted that the new ICM/Guardian poll has (unadjusted) No 44%, Yes 33%, DK 23%, giving an (adjusted) lead of NO 58% vs YES 42%. This is a massive shift in the polling numbers from the pollster that many (including OGH Mike Smithson) regard as a gold-standard pollster. The Guardian write-up can be found here: key features are that the December ICM/Guardian poll had YES 6-points ahead, before NO drew level…

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Who’s going to get moved and when? Next month we’re likely to have the Coalition’s first reshuffle. Whatever happens, the Coalition will break new ground. David Cameron will have to walk a tightrope between the two parties. Can he refresh his tired team and maintain the Coalition’s equilibrium. Here are six candidates who might move: Cable, Hague, Clegg, Laws, Spelman and Lansley. All have had an “interesting” year. How many could be in a new job by the recess? How…

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Are YES voters more likely to turn out? With just two and a half weeks to go before the series of elections on May 5th there are polls galore at the moment. YouGov’s latest AV tracker, for the Sunday Times, is out and sees a sharp reversal on what the online pollster found on Tuesday in the immediate aftermath of NO’s first election broadcast. On the face of it the YouGov finding is very different from what ComRes reported last…

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And NO increases its lead on AV Tonight’s ComRes online poll for the Indy on Sunday and the Sunday Mirror is out and shows that all three main parties have seen a decline in support since the last comparable poll in March. The shares are CON 35: LAB 39: LD 10: OTH 16 The ComRes phone polls are treated as a separate polling series from the phone surveys. We have not seen the detailed data yet but others have moved…

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