Jonathan asks: Is an Obama come-back now on the cards?

Jonathan asks: Is an Obama come-back now on the cards?

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A Sunday slot on next years’s White House race Whilst in the UK we’ve been focussed on the OE&S by-election, we have overlooked the dramatic events in America. Since the midterms, Obama has made a quiet comeback. He looked presidential this week and has recorded his first net approval ratings in months. In the meantime the GOP, who should have been celebrating control of the house, is on the back foot. What is really going on and what are the…

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Is Labour being flattered by the non-voters?

Is Labour being flattered by the non-voters?

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How much of the red support is from the “can’t be arsed”? One of the great things about the way Comres sets out the detailed data from its polls is that it includes a line on what those who didn’t vote at the last May say they plan to do next time. And from the latest poll we find that a move that I’ve identified before is that a significant part comes from those who didn’t vote at the general…

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EdM gets a by-election ratings boost

EdM gets a by-election ratings boost

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David Cameron David Cameron “doing well/badly” (YouGov) All (last week) CON voters LAB voters LD voters Well 45(-1) 96 9 76 Badly 48(+2) 3 89 23 Ed Miliband Ed Miliband “doing well/badly” (YouGov) All (last week) CON voters LAB voters LD voters Well 33 (+5) 17 66 32 Badly 43 (-6) 66 20 55 Nick Clegg Nick Clegg “doing well/badly” (YouGov) All (last week) CON voters LAB voters LD voters Well 30(nc) 63 4 74 Badly 60 (nc) 27 92…

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A third pollster puts YES ahead in a referendum poll

A third pollster puts YES ahead in a referendum poll

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Latest AV referendum polls Date YES % NO % Question wording ComRes/Indy on Sunday 14/01/11 36 30 “At present, the UK uses the first past the post system to to elect MPs to the House of Commons. Should the Alternative Vote System be used instead? “ YouGov/Sun 10/01/11 32 41 Bespoke wording – see below Angus Reid/ 07/01/11 37 20 “At present, the UK uses the first past the post system to to elect MPs to the House of Commons. Should…

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Will Ed’s siren call to Lib Dems work?

Will Ed’s siren call to Lib Dems work?

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  What’s changed since May? Ed Miliband’s call to disaffected Lib Dems to join him and Labour in opposing the government is hardly surprising: if successful, it would increase his base, split one of the coalition parties and undermine the government. That said, if he had really been serious about wanting to work with the Lib Dems, why was he – a member of Labour’s team – so cold about the idea in the post-election negotiations, as both Peter Mandelson…

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How does the government deal with the bank bonus issue?

How does the government deal with the bank bonus issue?

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Just how untouchable is the City? The explanation that the global recession was caused by a crisis in the banking industry has been oft-repeated by politicians over the last three years. It’s understandably attractive for them to do so. Not only is it a simple, plausible account of the cause of the problem but it also means that it’s neither their fault nor that of the general public. Consequently, bankers have had something of an image problem – and still…

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A plug for my brother’s new movie

A plug for my brother’s new movie

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One of the big movies that’s just gone on general release in the UK is “127 Hours” which was produced by my brother, John Smithson. Six years ago he won the BAFTA for best British film with “Touching the Void” 127 Hours, based on a true story, has become notorious for its key scene when a man, trapped by a boulder, has to amputate his own arm to save his life. And the betting implications – it might feature in…

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