The PB 2010 Prediction Competition Results

The PB 2010 Prediction Competition Results

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How PBers got 2010 right and wrong Congratulations to Yet Another David who finished 65 points ahead of Chris Read with Andrew Marshall in third place in the competition – the full table with all 131 players is available here, as well as an Excel spreadsheet showing the detailed breakdown of results. So what were the “Becher’s Brook” questions where people came unstuck? And what were the “dead certs” that nearly everyone got right? The first section looked at key…

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Is the Oldham weather looking good for Labour?

Is the Oldham weather looking good for Labour?

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UK.Weather.com Which party is most affected by inclement conditions? The traditional view has always been that the worse the weather conditions in the run-up and on polling day then the the party that is impeded most is Labour. In recent winter by-elections, however, Labour has done very well so I’m not sure about the old theory So what are we to make of the ten-day weather forecast for Oldham, covering a week on Thursday, which shows that it’s going to…

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Plato becomes the Poster of the Year by just one vote

Plato becomes the Poster of the Year by just one vote

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But would the outcome have been different with AV? When voting in the PB Poster of the Year election closed at bang on 5am Plato had just one more vote than Antifrank and I declare her the winner. The final vote which enabled her to nose ahead was cast at 4.57am. Well down to her and all the others who took part. Thanks also to those who voted. Plato is our first female Poster of the Year and is one…

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What’s behind the by-election betting moves?

What’s behind the by-election betting moves?

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Why are punters moving away from Labour? As one or two people reported on the previous thread there’s been a lot of movement this evening on the Old & Sad market on the Betfair betting exchange. The above screen shot was taken at 2148 and shows that the last price traded on Labour was 0.58/1. A week ago it was at 0.18/1. At the same time the price on the Lib Dems has moved in sharply. The question is whether…

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Which of these five will be elected PB Poster of the Year?

Which of these five will be elected PB Poster of the Year?

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Your chance to vote The PB Poster of the Year – the final round. You have just one vote ANTIFRANK PLATO YELLOW SUBMARINE NICK PALMER MORRIS DANCER    As was announced on the previous thread voting in the first round was suspended before the end time because of attempts to multi-vote. the the top five are those who were leading when the voting was stopped and I am satisfied that their totals were legitimate. Voting will continue overnight until I…

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Do the Tories have a Fuel Duty problem looming?

Do the Tories have a Fuel Duty problem looming?

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What happened to Osborne’s Fair Fuel Stabiliser? Two years ago, George Osborne launched a consultation on reform of Fuel Duty, with the aims of mitigating petrol prices when the they were high, keeping government revenue roughly neutral and providing greater certainty for motorists, business and government alike. We’ve not heard much of it since. That’s a shame because motorists are currently being hit by a triple whammy that’s pushed petrol up to record levels and will increase it still further….

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Jonathan looks at EdM’s first 100 days

Jonathan looks at EdM’s first 100 days

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How’s the new leader getting on with the job? Today marks Ed Miliband’s 100th day as Labour Leader. How do we think he is getting on? I am sure we all have a view. Returning from a break I have come to the conclusion that, despite a couple of presentational mistakes, Ed is actually doing quite well. Labour are on the right course. But, in the first 100 days it has also become clear how hard his task is. He…

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David Herdson’s predictions for 2011

David Herdson’s predictions for 2011

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Can it match the surprises of 2010? Goodbye to 2010 then, a year that saw more that its fair share of turn-ups. How many of us would have predicted that there’d be a Con-LD coalition government running the country? Who’d have been brave enough to predict Ed Miliband would be leading Labour? Would any of us have foreseen that during the year the Lib Dems would have polled either a first place – ahead of both the Tories and Labour, following…

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