…and so onto Barnsley Central….
Thanks to John Loony for the bar chart. Mike Smithson
It it wrong to assume that all Tory losses went to the LDs?
Populus cross party splits CON 2010 % LAB 2010 % LD 2010 % CON by-election 46 2 3 LAB by-election 12 89 31 LD by-election 34 3 55 Or was the party churn more complicated than that? In the aftermath of the OES result a widespread assumption has developed that all the Tory votes lost last night went to the Lib Dems. This looks a simple straightforward answer and apparently explains everything. But does it? For the Populus poll of…
… and it’s a comfortable win for Labour
Oldham East & Saddleworth: the result Labour 14,718 42.1 Lib Dem 11,160 31.9 Conservative 4,481 12.8 UKIP 2,029 5.8 BNP 1,560 4.5 Others 982 2.8 Labour Majority 3,558 Double Carpet The results for the Election Game are available here – well done to Raymond Kelly and Robert Barnsley who tied for the win.
While we await the Old & Sad result…
Andy Stephenson (via Wikimedia Commons) Continuation Thread …please continue the election night discussion here – and don’t forget to catch Our Genial Host on the BBC1 election result programme from 12.20. Double Carpet
What if the party on 43 struggles against the party on 9?
Is this election really all about EdM’s leadership? I very much agree with the former Blair advisor, John McTernan’s take on his Telegraph blog. ..This is, in the end, all about Labour. And more precisely, all about Ed Miliband. He needs a strong result because Oldham East and Saddleworth is a seat where Labour shouldn’t need to break sweat. Phil Woolas held the seat when Labour were a bare six points ahead of the Lib Dems nationally, with the margin…
A cautionary tale about following the betting
Remember this threat thread from five years ago? LDs shortening on betfiar re DF. Tabman February 9th, 2006 at 11:42 pm Has any government EVER had such a good -election record? The Professor February 9th, 2006 at 11:42 pm LibDem agent in Dunfermline says they are ‘optimistic of retaining second place’. Nick Palmer MP February 9th, 2006 at 11:43 pm Professor) If you correct for the lower number of -elections these days (longer life expectancy and younger MPs), the Tories…
Do the slimmed-down Tories hold the key to tonight’s result?
How much weight should we give to Blue>Yellow switching? There are two factors in today’s election that could just possibly cause an upset:- Differential turnout in each of the main party support groups. Will the red team manage to get the same proportion of its known backers to the polling stations as Team Watkins? In the past Labour has tended to come out with lower shares than by election polls suggested. What will wavering Tory supporters do especially following the…
Does the AV referendum question wording favour YES?
Latest AV referendum polls Date YES % NO % Question wording YouGov 10/01/11 32 41 See wording below Angus Reid 07/01/11 37 20 Actual phrasing that’s on the ballot paper ICM 19/12/10 44 38 Actual phrasing that’s on the ballot paper Why’s YouGov the pollster that’s out of line again? There’s a new Angus Reid poll out on the AV referendum and its findings are in sharp contrast to YouGov. The Canadian pollster has, like ICM, used the precise wording…