Will Labour’s tribalism see Ed Home?

Will Labour’s tribalism see Ed Home?

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Does it matter what supporters think of Miliband? I’m must ploughing through the hundreds of pages from Michael Ashcroft’s massive polling project for the Tories which tries to work out how the blues can win a majority. You can get the full details of the various segments here. I was quite struck by this finding: “Ed Miliband was a very much less important factor for Labour voters than David Cameron was for Conservative voters. Of those who thought Labour were…

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Where does the Huhne story go from here?

Where does the Huhne story go from here?

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BBC News And Cameron backs his energy secretary The Lib Dem energy secretary, Chris Huhne, has done a BBC interview in which he states categorically that the allegations he asked someone else to take his penalty points for a 2003 speeding offence are “simply incorrect”. No doubt there’ll be a lot of reading between the lines of his statement but it’s hard to see where the story goes from here without any evidence. Ladbrokes report that the money this morning…

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Huhne – the latest betting

Huhne – the latest betting

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Will he go or will he stay? The Huhne speeding points allegation story is the main lead in the Telegraph and Mail this morning as well as getting a lot of coverage elsewhere. There’s also a lively betting market from Ladbrokes developing on whether the Energy Secretary will survive as a cabinet minister beyond the end of May. Currently it’s 4/7 that he will hang on with 5/4 that he won’t. Ladbrokes also have the best price, 1/2, on Huhne…

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Tories take 2pc lead amongst 2010 general election voters

Tories take 2pc lead amongst 2010 general election voters

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A closer look at the latest ComRes online survey for the Indy on Sunday and Sunday Mirror suggests that Cameron’s Tories are now enjoying a lead amongst those who could be arsed to vote at the 2010 general election. The pollster is the only firm to make this data available and I highlight the proportion of non-2010 voters amongst those now saying that they will vote for the five parties. As can be seen the blues are doing best with…

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Which firm is getting closest with the Labour lead?

Which firm is getting closest with the Labour lead?

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The chart shows the Labour leads from the most recent surveys of the pollsters that have reported in the past month. YouGov which reports five days a week changes all the time though it tends to show much higher Labour shares than the others. This year it has had Labour in the 40s in every poll bar one – the survey that was taken on election day, May 5th. ICM, by contrast, has not had Labour above 39% in any…

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Chris Huhne – the pressure mounts

Chris Huhne – the pressure mounts

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We haven’t got the details yet from the Sunday Times main lead but it appears to be linked to the story that’s been running all week over driving licence penalty points. The Mail on Sunday reports what it’s been doing:- “When The Mail on Sunday tried to reach the Energy Secretary last weekend, seeking a response to damaging allegations that he had pressurised someone to ‘take the points’ for a speeding offence, he failed to return calls until 1am on…

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ComRes: Voters 4 to 1 against the Lanley NHS plan

ComRes: Voters 4 to 1 against the Lanley NHS plan

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And Clegg’s winning the NHS “credit race”? There’s a new ComRes online poll just out for the Indy on Sunday and the Sunday Mirror. It’s headline figures follow other recent polls and show that Labour’s lead is narrowing. These are the figures with comparisons on the last ComRes online poll:- Con 38% (+3) Lab 39% (nc) LD 11% (+1) Others 12% (-4) Amongst the non-VI findings there are some worrying numbers for the blue team on the Lansley NHS changes…

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Did the Lib Dems make the wrong call going for AV?

Did the Lib Dems make the wrong call going for AV?

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Should they have pushed for House of Lords reform instead? The comprehensive defeat for the Yes2AV campaign has caused much questioning from those who proposed the change: how could the campaign have been better fought? Was it on the wrong day? Was it too narrow in scope? How could the assertions from No have been better rebutted? – and so on. One question that does not seem to have been asked is the most fundamental of all: was it the…

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