Could Labour end up winning 1,000+ seats on May 5th?

Could Labour end up winning 1,000+ seats on May 5th?

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English local elections battleground May 2011 (Rallings and Thrasher LGC) CON defending LAB defending LD defending OTH defending Metropolitan boroughs: 815 seats in 36 councils 186 393 199 37 Unitary authorities: 1928 seats in total in 49 councils 909 501 380 138 District councils: 6647 seats in 194 councils 3931 726 1287 703 Total 9484 seats 5026 1620 1866 878 How will the parties do in the first test since the general? May 5th, just five and a half weeks…

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Jonathan’s Sunday Slot

Jonathan’s Sunday Slot

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Labour meets the Four Horsemen Opposition is hard. In the past month, Labour was rudely reminded of the weakness of opposition and just how difficult it will be to regain power. There are four political horseman of the apocalypse that can doom any opposition party. In March, Labour received visits from all of them. Fortunately for Labour, their visits came early, weren’t fatal and the party should learn from the experience. Who are they? Irrelevance. Opposition parties rely on the…

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Both Dave and Nick move up in the leadership ratings

Both Dave and Nick move up in the leadership ratings

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YouGov leadership ratings “…doing well/badly?” All % CON voters LAB voters LD voters David Cameron         Well 47(+4) 96 9 69 Badly 47(-3) 3 87 28 Ed Miliband         Well 32 (-2) 14 67 22 Badly 47(nc) 71 20 53 Nick Clegg         Well 28(+3) 58 5 68 Badly 63(-3) 34 92 29 But Edward drops a couple of notches The first leadership ratings numbers since the budget are out from…

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What’ll be the political fall-out?

What’ll be the political fall-out?

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Will today advance the anti-cuts cause? I’m sure I’m not the only one to have been shocked by some of the images that have been coming out of London’s West End in the past few hours. The real problem all those involved face, those on the official march and those in the breakaway groups, is that polling this week underlines that the need for cuts is well understood and supported by the majority. There might be opposition to specific measures…

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While Edward Miliband speaks….

While Edward Miliband speaks….

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Should he have stayed away? The BBC coverage of Edward’s speech to the cuts rally in Hyde Park moved first to a split screen and then blanked out completely as trouble erupted in the Oxford Street area. The vast bulk of the demonstration has been peaceful and good-natured but there was always a risk that a small minority would want to operate differently. I cannot believe that the timing of the violence was a coincidence. Mike Smithson

Will the OBR be Osborne’s Secret Weapon?

Will the OBR be Osborne’s Secret Weapon?

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Who does it make life harder for – government or opposition? It would be easy to see the admission made by George Osborne in this week’s Budget that the anticipated growth rate for 2011 had fallen and that the expected levels of borrowing had gone up as bad news for the government. And in the short term, it is. It means Labour have the opportunity to claim that the government’s policies aren’t working (whether or not they are isn’t the…

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A Marf cartoon to amuse us as we wait for ICM

A Marf cartoon to amuse us as we wait for ICM

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The big polling news tonight should be the March ICM survey for the Guardian which was pushed back from its normal slot so as to get reaction to the budget. The details will be published here when they are available – in the meantime here’s Marf’s take on the Libya bombing campaign. UPDATE: Tories back in the lead with ICM Poll/publication End date CON (%) LAB (%) LD (%) ICM Guardian 25/03/11 37 36 16 ICM Guardian 20/02/11 35 38…

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