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A total of 81 of entries were received for the PB Prediction Competition 2024 and I have included a summary of those entries below. Reflecting the prediction challenge I am struck by how quickly the news agenda shifts.  Most entrants predicted the party leaders will remain unchanged but in the days since entries closed, first Davey and then Starmer have come under pressure from the PO Scandal, so who knows how safe those predictions will be.  ‘Events dear boy, events!’ …

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INTRODUCTION The concept of a political elite is much in vogue recently. I find it difficult to cope with the recency, because the existence of a group of people above others is older than Britain: the term “privilege” is derived from “privilegium”, a private law. The British class structure which Thatcherism was supposed to overthrow had existed for centuries, and in turn dates back to divisions between clergy, nobility, landowners, etc. We could spend a lively time talking about how…

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On Monday it is the first event of WH2024 starting as usual with the Iowa caucuses. Inevitably, the terrible weather that the state is going through will likely impact the outcome. There’ve been fierce blizzards and heavy snowfalls. Many roads have been blocked and it’s hard to see this not having an impact on the outcome. Mancy eve of campaign events have been cancelled. My guess is that unless things improve rapidly the turnout level will be hit. Caucuses require…

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“In order to save space the word esquire has not been added to any name, though of course such should be added in every ease when no inconsistent addition is affixed.” – Kelly’s Handbook to the Upper Ten Thousand, 1875 In the ages before universal suffrage, it was assumed that society was run by an aristocracy. There was a certain flexibility in the British version of this. One could rise (within certain limits) – medicine, science and industry allowed commoners…

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The announcement of a law to overturn the subpostmasters’ convictions has provoked some concern amongst m’learned friends, on constitutional grounds. Are these valid? Why is the government in this position? The dilemma: if every convicted subpostmaster in the last 25 years applied to the Criminal Cases Review Commission (“CCRC“) to have their convictions reviewed and referred to the Court of Appeal, even if they started tomorrow, it would taken an inordinately long time to deal with them, even if the…

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Christie pulls out – a boost for Haley? Just 4 days to go before the first set piece of this year’s White House when the opening salvos and first actual voting are in Iowa with its caucuses. This time there will only be a Republican Party caucus while the Democrats contest will take place in about six weeks. The Iowa caucuses are a very difficult election to assess and there have been several instances in the past of the betting…

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I am glad I live in the United Kingdom where we have an orderly changes of government and no Second Amendment. TSE

Could she beat Trump in the New Hampshire primary? The only WH2024 bet I have placed has been on Nikki Haley to beat Trump in the first proper primary in New Hampshire towards the end of the month. She appears to be running the best campaign as doubts about Trump increase by the day. This latest poll is no surprise given Trump’s legal problems. One thing that might help her is that Democratic voters who are totally opposed to Trump…

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