How Sunak’s speech is being covered
Mike Smthson
A CON majority now drops to a 7.6% betting chance
No conference boost for Rishi
Rishi needs to define what Sunak-ism is to stand a chance
As the Rishi Sunak stands up to speak today, he will be in now doubt that time is running out for him and his party. Ipsos polling makes clear the scale of the political challenge he faces. Last month we found that 86% of the public think ‘Britain needs a fresh team of leaders’. Pessimism is palpable wherever you look. More than 6 in 10 tell us things in Britain are heading in the wrong direction and the public think…
How Christmas could come early for Ed Davey
The suggestion that Nigel Farage might at some stage join the Conservative Party is a hot topic as delegates gather for the party’s annual conference in Manchester. Perhaps those who back the idea have no comprehension of how the former UKIP leader and BREXIT itself are regarded by large sections of the electorate particularly in what are called now the blue wall seats. This could be just the lift that Ed Davey needs in order to make his party even…
YouGov – voters want an early election
A LAB majority stays at a near 65% betting chance
Starmer’s party, which hasn’t been getting much attention recently, is retaining its position in the next general election betting and is rated as a 65% chance of achieving an overall majority. It is hard to see this moving much except if LAB’s poll leading begins to ebb away. My calculation is that the critical figure we should look for is whether or not the Labour Party has an overall lead over the Tories of 7% or more. That should ensure…
This sums up the current Tory Party
The truly terrifying thing is Nigel Farage might not be the worst option for the Tory Party, not whilst Suella Braverman, Kemi Badenoch, Frosty The No Man, and Liz Truss all have leadership ambitions. From a betting perspective lay the sane* candidates in the next Tory leader betting market. TSE *Like an Alabama love story, it is a relative thing. Update
A note from Mike Smithson
After nearly 20 years of running PB I am taking a break from the site. In the meantime PB will be in the capable hands of TSE Mike Smithson