My first day back after a long holiday. I always hate it as you try to adjust to “normal” life again. The big political story that will dominate the weekend is, of course. Monday’s vote in the commons on the EU referendum motion. It looks as though there’ll be a sizeable Tory rebellion which could easily be 55 or greater. Have a good evening. @MikeSmithsonPB
Dave can’t win women back with cuts I am now confident Labour will win more votes from women than the Conservatives at the next general election. This would normally be an absurdly bold claim this far out from an election and especially since the historical trends suggest women are more inclined to vote Conservative than men. I don’t put this confidence down to Cameron’s daft “calm down†quips or the relative lack of women in Cabinet. My guess is that…
Or is it mostly current Tory voters who are concerned? The above chart is based on data from YouGov’s latest survey, taken on Tuesday this week, of the key issues when panel members are asked to tick three areas which concern them most. What’s shown above is the split amongst voters for the three main parties on a wide range of issues and the differences in priorities between the parties is quite marked. While concern about the economy is broadly…
How does he get out of the vote conundrum? Just got back home after out two and half weeks in Andalusia and am trying to catch up with what’s been happening. The thing I don’t understand about the Commons EU referendum vote issue is how Cameron & Co got into this position in the first place. Surely they should have seen this coming a mile off and tried to take some deflective action? Whatever the vote is taking place and…
BBC News Where does this leave Libya, the Arab Spring and UK politics? With unconfirmed reports that Gadaffi is captured, injured or even dead, the Libyan revolution looks to be almost complete. It still leaves the Middle-East in a state of flux though. Egypthas not had the promised elections, Syria remains in ferment, Bahrain unstable and other leaders will be watching warily. Domestically, Liam Fox may well be cursing his (largely self-inflicted) luck on the backbenchers that Gadaffi wasn’t found a week…
Is now the moment for a female Labour leader? There are two big trends being featured in almost all of the polling: Firstly that Ed Miliband’s personal ratings remain dreadful and it’s hard to see how, given the importance of leaders in determining election outcomes, that his party could win with him at the helm. At the same time Cameron and the Tories continue to have problems appealing to women voters. In both the leader ratings and voter intention almost…
The final NightHawks thread then before Mike Smithson returns to the fray tomorrow – as we speak he is on the Madrid-Paris sleeper. Can I take this opportunity to thank everyone for their support while Mike has been away, and as ever, it’s been pretty eventful. Huge thanks to the rest of the team who have contributed so magnificently in Mike’s absence – David, Henry, Morus, and Mark Gill for their articles, to Marf for the cartoons, and to the…
(… and if it did – would one be held?…) Take part in the PB poll Will MPs vote in favour of holding a referendum on EU membership? YES they will NO they won’t Mike Smithson is back from AndalucÃa tomorrow.