Will tonight’s vote be career-defining for some? Imagine you are an ambitious young Tory MP keen to make your mark in the world of politics and very eager to get a step on the ministerial ladder. What do you do about tonight’s vote? Do you decide to support the referendum move in the knowledge that this could possibly undermine your chances of preferment and leave you on the back benches. Or do you support the official line which could make…
Make your prediction here What will be the scale of the Tory MP rebellion on today’s EU referendum vote? There will be no rebellion – a last minute compromise will be agreed Up to 25 MPs will abstain or vote against their party line Between 26 and 50 MPs will abstain or vote against their party line Between 51 and 75 MPs will abstain or vote against their party line 76 MPs or more will abstain or vote against their…
After a bad tempered day ahead of the big EU referendum vote there’s been a special request to open the cafe early – so here we are. @MikeSmithsonPB
Has he decided to take on the hardliners? What’s striking about Dave’s approach to tomorrow’s vote is that there’s no suggestion of a compromise. As John Rentoul says the PM could come out of the vote victorious and at the same time have enormously strengthened his leadership. For the sceptics the size of the rebellion could be critical. If it peters out then it could push the EU issue off the agenda for a long time. Could tomorrow be seen…
Will the methodology changes hurt Labour most? PB regulars will know that I’ve been raising concerns about YouGov’s weightings for a very long time and have argued that these were giving a rosier picture of Labour’s position compared with other pollsters. Last Monday, while I was still on holiday in Spain, the firm introduced some major amendments which are to be applauded. On the party ID weightings the SNP and PC are now split off from the “others” and the…
Are you getting a sense of deja vu as well?
A guest slot from “PB’s Man on the Rock” In Gibraltar’s forthcoming general election, now only a month away, the Chief Minister Peter Caruana is hoping to be re-elected for a fifth consecutive term in office although, after being in power for the last 16 years, he has made it clear that, were he to be successful, this would be his last election. Under Caruana, Gibraltar has become something of an on-line Las Vegas in Europe. About 20 online betting…
How to tell when they’ll stay and when they’ll go One of the best rules of thumb for political betting is that unpredictable events don’t happen as often as popular memory (mis)remembers – or put another way, the value is usually against a resignation, leadership challenge or other like happening. The flip side is that sometimes, like with Liam Fox’s resignation, they do. How best to identify the exceptions? Ministers generally resign either because they’ve done something wrong or because…