Where Will Ed lead Labour?

Where Will Ed lead Labour?

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One year in, has he an election-winning strategy? The opening of Labour’s conference today marks the first anniversary of Ed Miliband’s surprise election victory. That year has had its share of ups and downs – solid and continuing leads in most polls published, healthy gains in the local elections, avoiding blame for Labour’s debacle in Scotland or the AV result for example. He’s also consolidated his own position as leader and looks well set to lead Labour through to the…

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Have you or would you ever vote for a party that is not your own?

Have you or would you ever vote for a party that is not your own?

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Would you ever vote for a party other than that which is your primary allegiance? Tick as many as apply. NO I always vote the same way. YES To stop another party winning in my seat YES If I was not happy with my own party’s incumbent/candidate YES To bring my party to its senses over a particular issue YES If thought another party’s candidate would make a better MP/councillor etc YES Another reason not listed Not applicable. I have…

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Miliband now slips BELOW Clegg in ICM’s leader ratings

Miliband now slips BELOW Clegg in ICM’s leader ratings

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Can Ed turn thing round at his conference? As well as the voting intention figures in the latest ICM for the Guardian there are the firm’s leadership ratings which ask the question of whether the PM/leaders/etc are doing a good or bad job. Cameron sees a substantial boost but the biggest winner in terms of change is Nick Clegg. As we saw in the previous thread the voting intention figures had the Lib Dems down three points which must have…

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Into the weekend with an ICM poll and the PB Nighthawks cafe

Into the weekend with an ICM poll and the PB Nighthawks cafe

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New ICM poll has CON 37 (nc): LAB 38 (+2): LD 14 (-3) I’m out tonight and am doing this from my phone. The survey for the Guardian has been published this evening and sees Labour back into the lead for the first time since June. The Tories are down a point and the Lib Dems down three – an outcome which must be a disappointment given that the fieldwork took place in the aftermath of their conference. It’s very…

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Is Perry’s problem that he’s not very good?

Is Perry’s problem that he’s not very good?

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Intrade prices The money moves from the Texan after latest debate There’ve been sharp moves in the GOP nominee betting following the latest TV debate between the declared contenders. Mitt Romney has now tightened to 5/4 on Betfair while Rick Perry’s price has moved out. The Intrade market, on which a lot of US-based punters gamble, has Romney’s chances at 42% while Perry has slipped to 32%. In the debate in Orlando all the other candidates made him the focus…

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Henry G Manson on the challenges facing EdM

Henry G Manson on the challenges facing EdM

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How’s the leader going to do next week? The nature of Ed Miliband’s election victory a year ago has proved to be an occasionally irritating backdrop in what has been a rollercoaster year for the leader. From addressing the TUC rally in March, robotically opposing industrial action in June and pulling out of the Durham Miners Gala in July, Ed has failed to develop a clear position with regards to the unions. This has culminated in a combination of proposals…

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And tonight in the PB Nighthawks Cafe…

And tonight in the PB Nighthawks Cafe…

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What poll questions would you like to put to PBers A week on Tuesday we’ll taking the superb overnight hotel train from Paris to Madrid on our way for our annual “fix” of Andalusia. My plan is to switch off from PB completely and we are planning threads for the two and a half weeks that I’ll be away. One thing we can set up in advance are online polling surveys to get the view of the PB community. Six…

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Are we seeing a cross-over again in the GOP race?

Are we seeing a cross-over again in the GOP race?

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Betfair Politics Is Romney set to return to the favourite slot? While we’ve been focussed on UK issues there’s been a fair bit of movement in the Republican nominee betting. As the chart of Betfair prices shows the sentiment is moving back to Romney once again. Inevitably a lot more questions are being asked of Perry who is not that well-known outside his native Texas. I think that both him and Perry are too tightly priced given that the first…

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