I’ve had quite a busy day betting. My respect for HenryG is such that I thought it was worth wagering a fair bit on his core proposition that EdM is not going to survive and that Yvette Cooper is best placed to win a new leadership election. I got on her at 4/1 which seems like a good price. I also got more on at 11/4 that EdM will step down as leader before the general election. Tonight’s YouGov daily…
His prediction: “what needs to be done will be done”. This was a bad Labour Party conference. It was confusing, contradictory, let the government off the hook and needlessly created an array of hostages to fortune. It all the feel of an emergency party conference arranged with a fortnight’s notice – not a platform planned carefully to showcase an alternative government and Prime Minister. This week wasn’t just a car crash. It was a 30 car pile-up. I could write…
Is the media narrative now about his leadership The chart contrasts the Labour lead in the overnight YouGov daily poll (6%) for the Sun and the deficit Ed Miliband has when the same sample was asked “who would be the best PM” (-14%). When the “best PM” question was asked just before the general election Gordon Brown trailed Cameron by just six points. The detail of the overnight polling shows that just 1% of LibDem voters named Ed as “best…
Well a whole day and a bit has passed since Mr. Miliband made his Liverpool speech and it is still the big talking point. The latest YouGov daily poll, has Labour still with a six point lead over the Tories – 43 to 37 with the LDs on 9. A Sun Tweet had this:- This is hardly dramatic especially as the same poll also has Dave’s rating as “Best PM” down one point as well. Anyway as PB regulars know…
YouGov Or is the party still going to be held responsible? Probably the biggest challenge facing the Two Eds is dealing with the perception set out in the polling featured above – who is responsible for the cuts? The good news is that compared with a year ago there’s been a drop from 44% to 40% in those blaming Labour. The coalition, meanwhile has seen its proportion up from 20% to 22%. The bad news for the red team is…
Is too much weight given to the views of Mirror readers? The YouGov daily poll overnight saw an opening of the gap between Labour and the Tories with shares of CON 37%: LAB 43%: LD 8%. The Labour 43% is only two points below the party’s post-general election high. For well over a year the online pollster YouGov has consistently been reporting higher Labour shares than the other firms. Thus in all but two YouGov polls since December the party…
A busy day and it will be interesting to see what the papers make of the Miliband speech. Have a good evening in the cafe – and, once again, thanks to Marf for her excellent spoof of the famous Hopper painting. @MikeSmithsonPB
So what’s the verdict? How did EdM do? For me the most striking feature of this afternoon’s speech was the outbreak of booing in parts of the audience when Miliband mentioned Tony Blair. Maybe they’d forgotten that the target of their hostility was one of only three Labour leaders ever to lead their party to overall majorities in general elections – something that Blair did a record three times. Miliband declares that he’s not Tony Blair yet the speech did…