Public Policy Polling Could Ron Paul win the first primary test? While all eyes have been on the way public opinion is moving in the UK following the EU veto the big political betting action has been on the race for the Republican nomination. With just 19 days to go before the Iowa caucuses the latest polling from the state suggests that it’s going to be nothing like as easy as it appeared last week for ex-house speaker, Newt Gingrich….
Where does Miliband stand now LAB’s no longer ahead? The December phone poll by Ipsos-MORI for Reuters has been published overnight and sees a dramatic rise in the the Tory share to 41% to take a two point lead. Fieldwork started on Saturday and continued until Monday evening so all took place after Friday’s dramatic news from Brussels hit the headlines and dominated the bulletins. This means that all the firms that have surveyed since the veto now have either…
And the blues and reds are now level pegging There’s a new ComRes telephone poll out for tomorrow’s Independent which sees the Tories up one and Labour down one so that they are now level-pegging on 38%. The Lib Dems, meanwhile, move up 2 from the last such poll at the end of November. The changes are, of course, within the margin of error. Note that comparisons are with previous ComRes phone polls and NOT the firm’s online polling. All…
In today’s YouGov poll respondees were asked asked a range of questions in relation to Cameron’s EU veto and political developments since. There’s one bit of the data that caught my eye – when people were asked “Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg has criticised David Cameron’s negotiating at the summit and said the veto was bad for Britain. Do you think it was right or wrong for Clegg to publicly criticise Cameron in this way? As can be seen the…
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The latest YouGov poll had 39/40/10 with, as seen from my Tweet, UKIP down to 4%. This was the second YouGov poll on the trot to have the gap down to this margin. Also, interestingly the government approval measure saw a move from minus 29 points to just minus 19%. Clearly it’s early days but so far at least the Tories seem to be getting a big uplift from the events in Brussels early on Friday morning. YouGov’s UKIP share,…
Does the Lib Dem “old guard” have too much influence? Some interesting observations from Channel 4’s Gary Gibbon on the turnaround in the Lib Dem position on Cameron’s EU move. He writes:- “..What was interesting talking to Lib Dem MPs today was how many of them actually didn’t have that much of a problem with the veto on Friday, or not a huge problem. One minister said there was a great gulf between the older peers down the corridor who’d…
How seriously should we take election speculation? Several bookmakers this morning have tightened the price against a 2012 general election as talk mounts of the coalition breaking up and a possible confidence vote. The key to all of this is whether one or more of the coalition partners wants it. For the Tories it would mean fighting on the 2010 boundaries which, as we saw then, led to the blues winning just 306 of the MPs against 344 non-Tories. This…