Public Policy Polling

Could Ron Paul win the first primary test?

While all eyes have been on the way public opinion is moving in the UK following the EU veto the big political betting action has been on the race for the Republican nomination.

With just 19 days to go before the Iowa caucuses the latest polling from the state suggests that it’s going to be nothing like as easy as it appeared last week for ex-house speaker, Newt Gingrich. Then he had double digit leads in the state almost across the board.

Now that’s started to change and the latest survey from Public Policy Polling has it down to just one point.

A mover is Ron Paul – whose libertarian approach to politics attracts a small but highly enthusiastic band of supporters – just the sort of people most likely to make the effort to attend caucus meeting on a freezing Tuesday evening in Iowa.

Meanwhile punters have taken flight and Mitt Romney is back as favourite again.

I closed a long Newt Gingrich position on Betfair on Monday and Tuesday. I’m still far from convinced it’s going to be Romney but there’s little doubt that the four states that vote in January could be hugely influential.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH