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Does the 2012 process make a late entrant more likely? There’s been a lot of speculation in recent days on some US sites on the possibility that the eventual nominee to face Barack Obama may not be a current runner. There are even suggestions of a brokered convention when a deal is done behind closed doors. What’s driving this is the fact that both Mitt Romney and the current front-runner in the polls, Newt Gingrich, have very little support from…

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Electoral Commission What proportion voted before the Brussels veto? When Labour decided to hold a speedy pre-Christmas by-election in Feltham & Heston only a short period after the death of former MP, Alan Keen, nobody could have foreseen that the political environment could have shifted. It all must have seemed pretty straight forward. Get it over with quickly with the expectation that the party will be returned again with reasonable majority on a reduced turnout. Well as we’ve seen in…

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Reflecting on the day in the PB NightHawks cafe I’ve just got round to watching PMQs and Ed was not as bad as some have reported. He was getting on okay with his unemployment questions and it was only when we got to Q4 of the six that things started to go wrong. He’d tried to raise the split on Europe between the PM and his deputy but Cameron was waiting. Dave’s pointed aside about Clegg and him having differences…

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Public Policy Polling Could Ron Paul win the first primary test? While all eyes have been on the way public opinion is moving in the UK following the EU veto the big political betting action has been on the race for the Republican nomination. With just 19 days to go before the Iowa caucuses the latest polling from the state suggests that it’s going to be nothing like as easy as it appeared last week for ex-house speaker, Newt Gingrich….

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Where does Miliband stand now LAB’s no longer ahead? The December phone poll by Ipsos-MORI for Reuters has been published overnight and sees a dramatic rise in the the Tory share to 41% to take a two point lead. Fieldwork started on Saturday and continued until Monday evening so all took place after Friday’s dramatic news from Brussels hit the headlines and dominated the bulletins. This means that all the firms that have surveyed since the veto now have either…

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And the blues and reds are now level pegging There’s a new ComRes telephone poll out for tomorrow’s Independent which sees the Tories up one and Labour down one so that they are now level-pegging on 38%. The Lib Dems, meanwhile, move up 2 from the last such poll at the end of November. The changes are, of course, within the margin of error. Note that comparisons are with previous ComRes phone polls and NOT the firm’s online polling. All…

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In today’s YouGov poll respondees were asked asked a range of questions in relation to Cameron’s EU veto and political developments since. There’s one bit of the data that caught my eye – when people were asked “Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg has criticised David Cameron’s negotiating at the summit and said the veto was bad for Britain. Do you think it was right or wrong for Clegg to publicly criticise Cameron in this way? As can be seen the…

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