Are there going to be any polls? According to Anthony Wells at UKPR there were going to be three polls tonight including the YouGov daily poll. Well so far we haven’t seen anything though there might be a Populus survey in the Times later. If there is anything then rest assured – it will be dissected by the PB NightHawks. Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH Recent Threads
Is that behind Labour’s declining ICM share? The big polling story about the Lib Dems since the general election has been a big decline in its vote and a largish movement to LAB. Often the figures we see on this are exaggerated because the don’t knows are netted off. To really see what’s happening we need to look at all the responses as seen in the chart above from the latest Sunday Telegraph survey. As can be seen Clegg’s party…
Will the odds on any of the outsiders move in? Whenever we discuss the fight for the Republican nomination we always seem to end up talking in absolute terms – who is best to fight Obama, who’s going to win, who has not got a chance, etc. That’s fine. But for serious gamblers with an eye to making money the question of who finally gets chosen in August is currently not that relevant. What we are interested in are the…
A new feature on PB: “Mike Snyder (aka SeaShantyIrish is a writer, researcher and Democratic political hack based in Seattle, Washington. In early 1988 he was a field organizer for presidential hopeful Paul Simon (the senator not the singer!) in Winneshiek Co, Iowa; Simon won the county but lost the state. For the 2004 campaign, Mike mapped the progress of John Kerry’s Iowa field campaign. In 2008, Mike presided over his own precinct caucus in Seattle, where he personally voted…
Why do the two firms have such different figures? Overnight I’ve received quite a few Tweets and emails asking if there’s an explanation for the very different voting intention figures in the polls for today’s papers. ICM in the Sunday Telegraph has a 6% CON lead while YouGov for the Sunday Times has LAB 3% ahead. We all, I guess, know that ICM carries out its voting surveys by phone which theoretically means that anybody in Britain with a landline…
LAB drop to just 34% A new ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph has the Tories opening up a gap of six points over LAB with the LDs standing still at 14%. The is the first survey by the pollster since Cameron’s Brussels veto and it’s the best Tory position in any survey since the first coalition budget in June 2010. Many regard ICM as “the gold standard” and in May got the AV referendum right to within a stunning…
How should he use his £200 worth of free bets? Firstly thanks to Marf for her new wonderful cartoon which will become the logo for the year’s poster of the year contest – due to take place over the holiday period. Secondly well done to Old_Labour who has won the PB Feltham by election competition Ranking Entrant Total error 1 old_labour 3.72 2 Harry Hayfield 4.04 3 Peter 4.71 4 Iapsis 4.89 5= Nick Palmer 5.09 5= TomS 5.09 5=…
How likely is a change before the election? Thursday’s by-election win notwithstanding, the last month has not been a good one for Ed Miliband. Labour’s lead in the polls has evaporated and he’s been seen to under-perform both in response to the Autumn Statement and at PMQs, resulting in hostile off-the-record briefings from Shadow Cabinet members, never mind backbenchers or commentators. That’s inevitably led to speculation about his future as Labour leader, and as speculation is – in both senses…