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Betfair Politics Could Newt Gingrich soon become favourite? By far the biggest political betting story at the moment is the race for the Republican White House nomination in which real voters start making their choices in just 34 days. Big money is starting to be wagered and every serious political punter that I know is involved. The past 24 hours have seen dramatic changes as one poll after another in one state after another have seen Romney’s share fall and…

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The first polling reaction to yesterday’s Osborne statement is coming in. This was Tweeted an hour ago. @Sun_Politics: Sun/YouGov poll: 1st verdict on Aut Statement – only 24% say Osborne doing good job, but they don’t blame him for growth collapse… …asked to name 2 causes; 44% blame Eurozone crisis, 32% say Labour’s leftover debts, 31% blame banks, and 28% think Coalition’s cuts. Have a good evening. Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonPB

And does the speaker make it worse? It was inevitable, I suppose, given the dreadful economic forecasts yesterday, and the strike today that PMQs would be noisy and angry. Things are getting very polarised. As to who won it depends on what you consider important? In terms of the media coverage Cameron’s description of his opponent as “Irresponsible, left wing and weak” is going to make the headlines. This was the PM using bluster to deal with a sustained series…

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Is that the challenge for the unions As well as the straight “do you support the strike” questions there’s a fair bit of other data that gives a pointer as to how successful today’s day of action will be. TNS-BMRB had just 12% saying they will be affected a lot and only 4% of private sector workers claim to know a lot about why the strikes are happening. So the unions would seem to have a big challenge getting their…

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Who’s going to come out of this on top? With the big strike on public sector pensions due to start in only a few hours it’s quite hard from the polls to work out how the public actually feel. Some surveys, like TNS-BMRB, this afternoon has support evenly split between the strikers and the government (40% vs. 37%). Other polls, notably YouGov and ComRes have those opposed to the strikes in the the lead. Thus YouGov at the weekend had…

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Farage’s party at just 3% in ComRes phone poll There’s a new phone poll out from ComRes for the Independent. The figures are, with changes on the firm’s last phone poll, CON 37%(+3): LAB 39%(+1): LD 10%(-4): OTH 14%. This is the first telephone national voting intention poll since the Survation survey on Saturday which had UKIP on 11% – just one point behind the Lib Dems. Although the Lib Dems slipped back sharply in this latest survey they still…

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