Will this negative attack impede the new front-runner?

With just thirteen days to go before the key primaries in Michigan and Arizona one of the bodies supporting Mitt Romney has launched the first of its TV ads against Rick Santorum. This will be shown hundreds of times in the two states as well in Ohio

My impression is that it’s nothing like as powerful as the ads used to destroy Newt Gingrich in Florida – in fact it’s rather lame.

The key to going negative against an opponent is to find something that chimes with a known or obvious weak spot which was why the attacks on Gingrich were so effective.

A problem for the Romney campaign is that they haven’t, I believe, identified weaknesses in Santorum that will resonate with the target audience.

Their big challenge is that Santorum’s “favourability” ratings are so much higher than Romney’s. Quite simply he’s liked in a way that the ex-governor of Massachusetts isn’t and there’s a danger that this approach could re-bound.

I’m due to win a substantial five figure sum if Santorum gets the nomination. This ad has not persuaded me to change my betting.

@MikeSmithsonOGH