politicalbetting.com

Ipsos-MORI Notice how the tide turned after his June 2007 exit? The February issues index from Ipsos-MORI came out a couple of days ago with the firm always producing a range of historical charts so we can see trends. MORI has been asking for 37 years in exactly the same way an unprompted question on what issues interviewees sees as the “most important facing Britain today”. As can seen the economy moved up sharply in 2008 and has remained high….

Read More Read More

Are we in for a more level playing field after Super Tuesday? Ever since the 2012 presidential election campaign got underway, Mitt Romney has had the best-funded campaign. That fact, combined with his position as consistently one of the two top-polling candidates and his opponents real weaknesses, has always enabled him to go negative against his principle opponent at the time. It hasn’t always worked. Caucuses tend to have different dynamics and much lower turnouts, meaning a broad but shallow…

Read More Read More

Is daddy sucking up to Mitt so his son can be V-P? Over the past 24 hours there’s been a big gamble going on for Rand Paul, son of Presidential contender Ron, for the Republican Vice Presidential nomination. Yesterday I got on with Ladbrokes at a tasty 50/1 – a price that was withdrawn almost immediatly. This morning 33/1 was available but soon shifted to 10/1 then 8/1 and now, at 1530 as I write, to 7/1. What’s driving this…

Read More Read More

What’ll happen if CON MPs block the move? For the first time since the coalition was created in May 2010 I think that there’s a serious chance that it won’t survive the full five year term. The rumblings from both sides are getting louder and the issue of Lords reform is emerging as the most dangerous area. In the coalition agreement in May 2010 three main constitutional moves were agreed by the two parties. The first was the AV referendum….

Read More Read More

Welcome again to PB’s overnight open thread I’m pretty tired after staying up late to watch last night’s GOP debate in Arizona so I’ll be going to bed early. Unlike most Thursdays I don’t think that there any council by-elections tonight – but we do have Question Time on BBC1. Have a good night. @MikeSmithsonOGH

Is she the most effective advocate of the NHS changes? Anybody who watched this morning’s Daily Politics will have been impressed by the hugely effective way 2010 newbie, Anna Soubry dealt with the NHS changes. If you didn’t see it check it out when it comes out on BBC IPlayer in the next hour or so. In terms of communication skills Soubry is the equal of or even better than anybody in the entire cabinet or shadow cabinet which, admittedly,…

Read More Read More

In the end its about Romney. What happened tonight to get people over their concerns about him? Not much. This isn’t over by far — Joe Trippi (@JoeTrippi) February 23, 2012 Romney refuses to name a misconception about himself. How about, he’s a flip flopping, elitist liberal? #cnndebate #azdebate — Tim Stanley (@timothy_stanley) February 23, 2012 Santorum dropped quite a bit on Intrade during the debate. Now just 6.8% chance of winning GOP nomination, started at 11% — Nate Silver…

Read More Read More

…the 20th and possibly final GOP TV debate Amazingly there have been nineteen separate TV debates in the fight for the GOP nomination. Tonight’s event, being staged near Phoenix in Arizona, is the twentieth and will almost certainly see Rick Santorum coming under close scrutiny. In all the previous events he’s never been centre stage and it will be interesting wathching how he performs and how the other contenders react to him. A lot of this is not about the…

Read More Read More