UPDATED Will Democrat “cross-overs” give him the edge? It’s election day in Michigan and the final poll from Public Policy Polling, based on telephone surveys last night, has reported a sharp move back to Santorum in the crucial primary. This is Romney’s home state and is a “must-win”. On Sunday night PPP had had him with a 2% lead. Last night the firm has found Santorum to be 5% ahead. It’s now Santorum 39%, Romney 34%, Paul 15%, Gingrich 10%….
Most people say “Tax the rich” to help poor A majority of people want George Osborne to raise taxes for the rich in next month’s Budget in order to take more low paid workers out of tax, according to a ComRes survey for The Independent. 60% of those sampled support the LDs main budget demand while 34% disagree. I am wary of polling like this – generally speaking people support tax increases that don’t affect them but oppose those that…
Betfair Politics Should Ken be better than a 36% chance? All the polling in the past couple of months has had May’s London mayoral election as what US pollsters term – “a statistical tie”. Ken’s been up by 2 and so has Boris but the lead is toggling between the two. The latest has the Tory in the lead. In the national polls Labour is in a vastly difference position than four years ago when their share was mostly in…
Can a Mitt Michigan victory answer his doubters The latest Michigan surveys from Public Policy Polling suggests that Mitt Romney is heading for a victory in his home state of Michigan. A fortnight ago the firm had Santorum 15% ahead there. The pollster is superb for getting information out early and the latest numbers are based on fieldwork last night which only closed two or three hours ago. It also uses Twitter very effectively. Mitt Romney’s at 39% to 37%…
This is our overnight open thread. Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH
LD peer Lord Oakeshott says if the Tories renege on Lords reform then the new boundaries won”t go through.bbc.in/zmHzhp — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) February 26, 2012 LD peer links Lords reform to the boundary changes Two days ago I suggested that the coalition could collapse over the house of Lords reform programme agreed between the Tories and the Lib Dems in the 2010 coalition agreement. My post stated that if Tory MPs rebelled then the Lib Dems could pull the…
Was this like Gordon Brown’s “Elvis” moment? On Wednesday night Mitt Romney had a big success in the effort to stop Rick Santorum in the final candidates’ TV debate of the campaign. Almost all the polling in the immediate aftermath had Mitt improving his position in relation to Rick Santorum. Nate Silver reckons that it has given him a 4% boost. Then he went on to Detroit to make what was billed as a big speech on the economy. The…
How’s it going to do? The big news about the news overnight will be the launch of the Sun on Sunday which seems to have been developed at break-neck speed. Given it was less than a fortnight ago that Rupert Murdoch made his intentions clear it is really amazing that we have got to this stage so quickly. Part of this is, of course, a reaction to the dramatic arrests at the paper earlier in the month. This is Rupert…