Should Ken be better than a 36% chance?

All the polling in the past couple of months has had May’s London mayoral election as what US pollsters term – “a statistical tie”.

Ken’s been up by 2 and so has Boris but the lead is toggling between the two. The latest has the Tory in the lead.

In the national polls Labour is in a vastly difference position than four years ago when their share was mostly in the 20s. Also in local council by-elections up and down the country we are seeing the red team chalk up gain after gain.

Which all doesn’t make sense of the betting. Is Ken the value bet? I got him at 14/1 before he’d even been selected so I’ve got margins to play with but the current price does seem good.

@MikeSmithsonOGH