Suddenly the bookies have woken up to May 3rd

Suddenly the bookies have woken up to May 3rd

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How many seats will Labour gain? With just nine days to go before what are being described as the “Britain’s mid-terms” there’s a whole raft of new markets being set up by the bookies. Until now virtually the only focus has been on London. Now many other options are available including the second biggest mayoral election – the choice of the first elected mayor of Liverpool from William Hill. Labour is the 1/10 favourite but you might have local knowledge….

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LAB move to biggest ICM lead since the general election

LAB move to biggest ICM lead since the general election

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CON 33 (-4) LAB 41 (+3) LD 15 (+2) UKIP 3% (-1) For the first time the firm has them in the 40s The April ICM poll for the Guardian is just out and has LAB in its best position with the pollster since the general election. The changes above are with the last ICM poll to be published not the last one in the Guardian which was a bit earlier. more follows @MikeSmithsonOGH

Could Boris be out of a job next week?

Could Boris be out of a job next week?

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Boris 43%(-2) Ken 41%(+1) Paddick 8%(+1) Benita 3%(+1), UKIP-Webb 3% (nc) Jones GRN 2%(nc) BNP (1%) YouGov London: Ken now within just 2% With just ten days to go there’s a new YouGov London poll just out which has the Boris-Ken gap down sharply to just 2%. This is very much in line with the increase in Labour’s lead in the Westminster headline voting intentions in the capital. Clearly this is going to be very close and everything depends on…

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So is Hollande now a certainty for round 2?

So is Hollande now a certainty for round 2?

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Google politics with 99.9% reporting Could Sarkozy be worth a 5/1 bet? Overnight Nickolas Sarkozy became the first sitting French president to fail to win round one of a presidential election. His margin of defeat was a touch closer than some of the polls were predicting but there’s little doubt that his Socialist party opponent, Francois Hollande has the momentum for the second round run off a week on Sunday. The surprise was the good showing of Marine Le Pen…

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France 2012 Round One – Election Night

France 2012 Round One – Election Night

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Wikimedia Commons Leaked results show Hollande doing well overseas The first French polling stations close at 6pm local time tonight (5pm UK) and the last two hours later, but already there have been leaked unofficial results via Swiss media which show Socialist challenger Hollande doing well in the French overseas territories (the DOM-TOM) in the Americas, with swings of about 20% in Guadeloupe. It’s expected that Hollande and Sarkzoy will progess comfortably through to the second round in two weeks’…

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Remember when UKIP was going to take out John Bercow?

Remember when UKIP was going to take out John Bercow?

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ConservativeHome poll September 2009 Why’s Farage’s party so poor at the ground war? This post has been going round my head since Thursday night’s PB party following a couple of conversations with those who were there. The first was an observation from John O, a regular since the early days of the site, about how few PBers appeared to have little direct experience of the grunt work and expertise required to win elections on the ground. The second was with…

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LAB extends its lead with ComRes online

LAB extends its lead with ComRes online

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ComRes for IoS/SM: Con 34%(-3), Lab 40%(-), LD 11%(+1), UKIP 6%(-), Others 9%(+2) ht.ly/aqKcu — Andrew Hawkins (@Andrew_ComRes) April 21, 2012 ComRes: 29% say Dave turning to be good PM/ 22% saying Cl egg good LD leaderwith only 18% saying EdM good Lab leader. PAGING DAN HODGES — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) April 21, 2012 ComRes – on leader disapproval Ed is at:49%/ Dave 50%/Nick 52% — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) April 21, 2012 Indy/S Mirror poll: Cameron and Osborne fall from…

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The closing polls look even better for Hollande

The closing polls look even better for Hollande

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Is this the end of the road for Sarkozy? As we move into the final hours of the French presidential campaign all the signs point to both a victory for the Socialist, Francois Hollander in the first round of voting tomorrow and in the second round two weeks later. The best betting price you can get is 1/8 with PaddyPower while other bookies are as tight as 1/10. There had been suggestions that the incumbent, Sarkozy might squeeze a lead…

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