France 2012 Round One – Election Night

France 2012 Round One – Election Night

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Leaked results show Hollande doing well overseas

The first French polling stations close at 6pm local time tonight (5pm UK) and the last two hours later, but already there have been leaked unofficial results via Swiss media which show Socialist challenger Hollande doing well in the French overseas territories (the DOM-TOM) in the Americas, with swings of about 20% in Guadeloupe.

    It’s expected that Hollande and Sarkzoy will progess comfortably through to the second round in two weeks’ time, and although we may not see 20% swings in France proper tonight, these early leaks are encouraging if you’ve backed Hollande to finish top in the first round. Presidents seeking re-election in France have to date always led after the first round of voting.

There’s a tight battle on for third place between Marine Le Pen and Left Front candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon, while if the polls are accurate, Sarkozy is heading for a heavy defeat in two weeks’ time. Official results and exit polls will be out tonight from 7pm UK time, but in the preceding two hours there may well be leaks via Twitter as well as Belgian and Swiss media.

Elsewhere, the Dutch government is on the brink of collapse following the failure of talks on budget cuts, and the Czech government could fall tomorrow after splits in a junior coalition partner. The Netherlands in particular may well unsettle the markets, with a possible loss of the AAA rating and months of political instability.

Results map

Le Monde

Le Figaro

France 24 News

Double Carpet

DC mainly covers international politics for PB, with occasional forays into the UK and US. He also runs The Election Game – the Greece game is available here and the London mayor game is available here.

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