The LAB/Ed surge continues with the top pollster on Boris vs Ken

The LAB/Ed surge continues with the top pollster on Boris vs Ken

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Opinium’s leader ratings also have Ed ahead of Dave There’s a new poll out from Opinium – the online firm that hasn’t received much credit for being closest with the final Boris-Ken split in the London Mayoral election just over a fortnight ago. It reported a 52-48 final split which was two points closer than YouGov. The final split in actual votes was 51.53% to 48.47%. Opiinum’s latest Westminster VI poll is now reporting, like the other firms, a move…

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Could Boris’s successor be another Johnson?

Could Boris’s successor be another Johnson?

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Is there any point in betting on the 2016 race? Both PaddyPower and Ladbrokes have now got markets up on the 2015 London mayoral race and there appears to have been a bit of activity with Labour’s Alan Johnson now second favourite with both – 6/1 with the former and 10/1 the latter. The interest in Alan Johnson stems from comments he made about how him running this time had been a possibility and that he might put his cap…

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Should Kelvin write off his 1,000 pound “Dave will go” bet?

Should Kelvin write off his 1,000 pound “Dave will go” bet?

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Surely Cameron will continue well beyond this year? The appearance by ex-Sun editor Kelvin Mackenzie on BBC’s Question Time last night reminded me of his £1000 bet that he wrote about in the Daily Mail just a week and a half ago. “I like a bet and sensed a killing was to be made when I saw a throwaway line in a Sunday paper. It said Rebekah Brooks, former chief executive of News International, was prepared to make public all…

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PB NightHawks on Thursday

PB NightHawks on Thursday

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Is James Forsyth calling this right? The Speccies’s James Foryth: Ed Miliband as PM is no longer an absurd proposition but a distinct political possibility. bit.ly/KkUhe6 — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 17, 2012 The Speccie’s political editor and one of the best connected journalists in the Westminster village makes the case tonight that PM Miliband is a distinct possibility. Is he right? Have a good night @MikeSmithsonOGH

Surely Ron Paul can’t steal the nomination off Romney?

Surely Ron Paul can’t steal the nomination off Romney?

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What are we to make of reports that he might? Partly because I’m writing regularly on the 2012 White House race for the Telegraph I’m being contacted a lot by Ron Paul supporters who believe that there man will be in a strong position at the Republican National Convention in Tampa at the end of August. First they are saying ignore the regular delegate counts put out by the media – these are only half the story. For over the…

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The YouGov tracker the Tories should be most concerned about

The YouGov tracker the Tories should be most concerned about

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YouGov The above is a list of all the post-general election findings to YouGov’s forced choice question which for years I have regarded as an equal if not better pointer to election outcomes than the standard voting intention polling. Its strength is that it combines party allegiance and views of the leaders with what people would most like to see happen. It is also a possible pointer to potential tactical voting. Unfortunately YouGov has only asked it twice this year…

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Romney punters will have to wait until Tampa

Romney punters will have to wait until Tampa

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Betfair Politics A couple of people have raised with time the question of when they can expect to pick up their winnings on Mitt Romney for the Republican party nomination. The battle is just about all over with Mitt expected to cross the finishing line with the 1144 delegates in the next two to three weeks. Unfortunately for punters the bookies are likely to do what they have done in the past and wait until the party convention has met….

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