Will relaxing immigration controls be a vote winner or a loser?

Will relaxing immigration controls be a vote winner or a loser?

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How much of a gamble is Obama’s liberalisation move? There’s a fascinating debate going on amongst US political pundits over the electoral impact of Obama’s relaxing of immigration controls. Last week he announced an executive order which has the effect of stopping the federal government from deporting illegal immigrants under the age of 30 who came to the US before age the age of 16. To qualify they have to have lived in the US for at least five years,…

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The overnight thread – and a plug for Marf

The overnight thread – and a plug for Marf

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This Sunday in Hampstead PB’s cartoonist, Marf, is doing a special drawing session on Sunday in Hampstead in North West London. Details are above. Best of luck for the day Marf. Meanwhile this is the overnight thread. Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

A MORI double whammy for Salmond and the SNP

A MORI double whammy for Salmond and the SNP

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Three weeks into the campaign and NO increases lead There’s a new telephone poll from MORI of Scottish voters and the results are not encouraging for Alex Salmond or his party in their effort to secure a YES vote in the 2014 Independence referendum. On top of that the SNP leader sees a decline in his satisfaction ratings although they still remain positive. These are some of my Tweets. MORI Scotland: Salmond’s leadership ratings see sharp drop. He’s down a…

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What are Boris’s chances of becoming Tory leader?

What are Boris’s chances of becoming Tory leader?

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Is he currently up to something? Looking right across the bookmakers and Betfair and there’s one clear favourite for the Tory leadership – someone who is not even qualified to stand. Ladbrokes and Bet365 make Boris a 4/1 shot, Hills have him at 9/2 while PaddyPower is offering 6/1. On Betfair the last price traded was 5.4/1. Yet the winner of two consecutive London mayoral elections does not meet the basic requirement of being an an MP and his second…

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Labour maintains its 8 point Populus lead

Labour maintains its 8 point Populus lead

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But there’s better news for Dave on “preferred PM” There’s a new Populus telephone poll out for tomorrow’s Times which has CON 33%(nc): LAB 41%(nc): LD 9%(-1): UKIP 5% So the Labour’s lead stays constant and the tendency for phone polls to find much smaller shares for UKIP continues. On leader ratings 24% said they were “satisfied” with Cameron as PM. 32% said they were “dissatisfied… but would still prefer Dave to Ed Miliband”, while 31 per cent said they…

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Why’s Salmond scared to use the INDEPENDENCE word?

Why’s Salmond scared to use the INDEPENDENCE word?

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Does the latest move smack of panic? The Scotsman is reporting today the latest in a series of developments within the SNP that suggests that all is not well with their campaign for INDEPENDENCE – which will be voted on in the 2014 referendum. The paper reports: “THE word “independence” could be dropped by the SNP because the party fears it is scaring off voters from supporting it in the forthcoming referendum. SNP politicians have been told to use the…

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Greece: The punters had Samaras’s victory right all along

Greece: The punters had Samaras’s victory right all along

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The biggest betting night since the UK general election The tight victory by Antonis Samaras’s ND party ended what was almost certainly the biggest night of political betting since the UK general election in May 2010. Overall on Betfair’s various markets more than £1.6m was traded a large part of that in the final 24 hours. Interestingly, in view of the way the election was being reported, the ND was always favourite. The longest price on ND that you could…

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