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This poll from YouGov confirms a hunch that I’ve had for a while, Reform are simultaneously the country’s most popular party and the country’s most unpopular party which bodes well for tactical anti Reform voting (see the Caerphilly by-election as an example.) The other questions find further credence for this ‘YouGov also found that there was still a clear majority of voters strongly opposed to the concept of a Reform government. About half (49 per cent) of all voters thought…

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I know it is gauche to keep on talking about your successful betting strategies but I love a good trading bet, if you followed my tip from September 2024 on Ed Miliband succeeding Sir Keir Starmer then you should be considering trading out for a profit. You can back Ed Miliband as next PM on Betfair at 32.5 which I think represents value. TSE

TSE

I have to be honest getting Andrew Cuomo endorsed by Donald Trump, Stephen Miller, and Elon Musk might not be sub-optimal for the Zohran Madami. But if that AtlasIntel poll is right then these endorsements have the potential to see the Republican candidate, Curtis Silwa’s vote squeezed like a Chippendale’s arse at a hen party then it could had Andrew Cuomo victory. TSE

It’s November. It’s not the midterms. Instead it’s the mid-midterms. When we see a couple of interesting elections. Let’s run through them shall we: New York Mayoral Election Communist/Democratic Socialist v Total Scumbag v Guardian Angel I think the Republicans could have won this. As it is, I suspect Mamdami takes it, especially given Trump’s decision to endorse the Total Scumbag. National readthrough level… low Virginia State Offices You know what happens whenever a new President is elected? The Virginia…

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In 2014 one of the main reasons I thought and back No to win was the fact the Yes side couldn’t come up with a plausible answer for the currency an independent Scotland would use as well as ancillary questions like who would be the lender of last resort. Eleven years on it appears the independence side haven’t come up with a plan and would rather not the issue be discussed. As The Times notes why this is important. Before…

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Tomorrow sees the election for Mayor of New York and it would be quite the fairytale of New York if Andrew Cuomo wins given the current polling, the fact he lost in the primary to Zohran Mamdani and more pertinently the reasons he had to resign in disgrace as Governor of New York in 2021. I have thought for a while there might be some value in backing Cuomo given the left wing campaign Mamdani has been fighting on. Perhaps…

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Today is the first anniversary of Kemi Badenoch becoming Tory leader when she defeated the human colostomy bag that is Robert Jenrick and it doesn’t make good reading for her. The most striking number is that 12% of voters think she looks like a Prime Minister in waiting, which is lower than the Tory voting intention figure which means the Tory vote is soft. The only positive thing I can say about Kemi Badenoch is that she’s not Robert Jenrick,…

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