politicalbetting.com

In her weekend interview with the FT Nicola Sturgeon covered a wide range of topics but from a betting perspective this is the key quote. The day after the UK’s 2016 Brexit vote, [Sturgeon] said a second independence referendum was “highly likely”. Now it’s “off the radar . . . But in younger age groups, support for independence is 60, 65, 70 per cent. They’re not changing their minds as they get older. The demographics are very firmly in one…

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With Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin seen as effectively two cheeks of the same arse by the voters there has to be some reaction even before we remember just how the polls show the voters Brexit has been a bit of a disaster. If a referendum were to be held it would likely to be in the next parliament if we had a Lab/Lib Dem coalition at the next election as I expect it would be the latter’s red line…

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I suspect more Reform councillors will be revolting as Nigel Farage parrots the incoming Trump administration’s views on the UK taking back Shamima Begum. Ladbrokes have a specials market on Nigel Farage and for me the only bet that is only worth considering is the 1/6 on Farage to not be replaced as the leader of Reform. Reform isn’t like most political parties as they are a limited company so ousting Farage isn’t possible because of their structure even if…

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Do Britons support the government's proposals to give sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius? Support: 25%Oppose: 21%Don't know: 54%https://t.co/p6yAUTdtDZ pic.twitter.com/gBGtUuZWzq — YouGov (@YouGov) January 9, 2025 Those hoping this policy by Starmer would be unpopular will be disappointed, in the grand scheme of things voters are concerned by public services, taxes, et al, not some faraway islands, these are not the Falkland Islands. TSE

Liz Truss is the gift that keeps on giving. Her cease and desist letter to Sir Keir Starmer is an interesting tactic. David Allen Green has looked at the legal perpective here but I am going to look at the political perspective. My expectation is that her action will be the Streisand effect on stilts. The last thing the Tories need is Liz Truss reminding the country about her tenure. Whilst she didn’t last long enough to crash the economy…

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One of my all time favourite general election constituency results is the one above which shows the absurdity of the first past the post system. Despite being elected as Labour leader under the alternative vote system Starmer has no plans to change the voting system for the UK general election so FPTP is here to stay in all its glory. As a gambler my big fear for the next general election is in the majority of constituencies we might see…

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Rachel Reeves tenure as Chancellor reminds me of a Yodel driver, both rarely deliver and when they do it usually is a bit of a disaster. Her and Labour’s economic chickens are coming home to roost, they spent the last election campaign ruling our direct tax increases which led to the job destroying increase in national insurance for employers. Labour also spent fourteen years deriding austerity as a deliberate choice when it is was a fiscal reality/neccesity and now they…

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Our Parliament is filled with new MPs with little or no experience of how to legislate. Or experience of the consequences of getting new laws wrong. There is, however, one law they need to understand above all…. It was LBJ who said: “You do not examine legislation in the light of the benefits it will convey if properly administered but in the light of the wrongs it would do and the harms it would cause if improperly administered.“ Wise advice….

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