Given that Farage must be UKIP’s best prospect for GE2015 PaddyPower open betting on which seat he’ll choose

Given that Farage must be UKIP’s best prospect for GE2015 PaddyPower open betting on which seat he’ll choose

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Interesting UKIP betting market from PaddyPower – which constituency will Nigel Farage stand in at #GE2015? pic.twitter.com/z3UpJY0TZn — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 22, 2013 Is Eastleigh where he’ll try to get into Westminster? By far the most recognised UKIP politician is the leader, Nigel Farage, and clearly he’s the one who you’d think would have the best chance of becoming an MP at GE2015. The party’s best performance ever in a Westminster seat was at Eastleigh in February when they…

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An improving economy: The biggest threat to the future of the UK?

An improving economy: The biggest threat to the future of the UK?

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If you subscribe to the theory that the next election will be largely determined by the performance of the economy, then 2013 has been interesting, at the start of the year, the main economic news was whether we would avoid a triple dip recession. A few months ago, not only did we avoid the triple dip, but it turns out the double dip didn’t happen either, and a few weeks ago, the cherry on the parfait was that the IMF upgrades…

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The polling on the week’s battles of LAB’s custodianship of the NHS, Crosby and the Tories and plain cigarette packaging

The polling on the week’s battles of LAB’s custodianship of the NHS, Crosby and the Tories and plain cigarette packaging

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Just 18% tell YouGov that it is acceptable for Crosby to be advising Tories while working for commercial clients pic.twitter.com/SmOznwaHeP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 21, 2013 Just 19% tell tell YouGov that last LAB government most to blame for NHS failings found in Keighley report pic.twitter.com/6rotB8qxKu — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 21, 2013 YouGov party trusted to deal with NHS CON 19 LAB 29 LD 5 None of them 35 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 21, 2013 And today’s YouGov voting figures Latest…

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Hung parliament maintains its favourite status in the general election overall outcome betting

Hung parliament maintains its favourite status in the general election overall outcome betting

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Latest Betfair GE2015 overall majority betting based on last trades pic.twitter.com/qECivvD4iU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 20, 2013 But Ed is odds-on favourite to be next PM Ed Miliband 54.5% favourite on Betfair for next PM based on last trade See top 8 pic.twitter.com/UDouJXYYr6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 20, 2013

Lib Dem incumbency: immune to government?

Lib Dem incumbency: immune to government?

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Local factors could mean they’ll be as hard to shift as ever The biggest and longest-lasting movement in opinion polling since the 2010 general election has been the loss of at least half of the Lib Dem vote, most of which has gone to Labour.  By contrast, despite the spending restraint and what at times has been a strained relationship between the Conservatives and their traditional supporters, the last YouGov poll showed only a 1% direct net swing from Con…

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NightHawks is now open

NightHawks is now open

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  Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker,  why not Delurk tonight, hopefully, Some People, will delurk tonight The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant story)   The Tory election campaign has started – and it’s only going to get uglier Miliband’s end of term report – How’s he doing…

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Why to LAB strategists the fight with the Tories is their least important battle

Why to LAB strategists the fight with the Tories is their least important battle

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New Populus online poll has LAB lead up to 8 CON 31%(nc) LAB 39%(+1) LD 12%(-1) UKIP 10%(nc) Changes are on Monday's poll — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 19, 2013 In the red camp the most important objective is retaining 2010 LDs A couple of months ago I had an interesting dialogue with one of Labour top strategists who set out the four battlegrounds which they thought would decide GE2015. Surprisingly the least important to him was the fight with the Tories. The second didn’t…

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Why do so many Tory MPs have second jobs?

Why do so many Tory MPs have second jobs?

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The Henry G Manson Friday column Ed Miliband’s decision to clamp down on the number of Labour MPs who have second jobs caused some surprise the other week. Following the 2015 general election no Labour MP will be able to work more than the value of 15% of their salary. Miliband called on other parties to follow suit. The way this story was reported suggested that if this policy was a stealth attack on the Conservative Party. But why? There…

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