Local By-Election Preview: November 28th 2013

Local By-Election Preview: November 28th 2013

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  Winkfield and Cranbourne on Bracknell Forest (Con Defence) Result of last election (2011): Con 40, Lab 2 (Conservative overall majority of 38) Result of ward at last election (2011): Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives 1,308, 1,250 Green 269 Labour 255, 252 Candidates duly nominated: Paul Birchall (Lib Dem), Janet Keene (Lab), Ken La Garde (UKIP), Susie Phillips (Con) When people think of “one party states” in local elections, they often think of the Labour heartlands such as Knowsley (Lab 63,…

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Chris Huhne discusses the prospects for a Labour-Lib Dem coalition in 2015.

Chris Huhne discusses the prospects for a Labour-Lib Dem coalition in 2015.

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Now that he is free from being a Member of Parliament, and not constrained by having to toe the party line, Chris Huhne has been offering his thoughts on a variety of subjects. Yesterday Chris Huhne wrote a piece in Juncture magazine which discusses on the formation of the current coalition in 2010, and the possibility for a Labour/Lib Dem coalition in 2015. (You can read the piece here and here’s the Guardian write up of the Huhne piece.) He says on…

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If anything UKIP ‘s poll shares have edged up over the past month

If anything UKIP ‘s poll shares have edged up over the past month

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And next week GE2015 will be only 17 months away Perhaps the biggest question hanging over the GE2015 outcome is how big will UKIP’s share be on the day. Although the party is attracting support across the board the general view is that the Tories will be damaged the most. By the same argument the more the UKIP share slips back then the better it should be for the blue team The real answer is that we don’t know. The…

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How WH2012 would have finished up if only white men had voted

How WH2012 would have finished up if only white men had voted

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If only white men voted here is what the 2012 map would have looked like source: http://t.co/RXZd6YqyW5 MAP: pic.twitter.com/6tMbcLyCsU — PoliticaI Charts (@PoliticalCharts) November 28, 2013 We’d probably get a similar pattern in the UK I find the chart above absolutely fascinating although not surprising. In the US, of course, the Democratic party colour is blue and the Republican one red. So the message is that it would be President Romney now if the franchise has been what it was…

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PB Nighthawks is now open

PB Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. Nighthawks gives me the opportunity to say Let Me Entertain you with my round up of links. To you lurkers, why not delurk? You’ll have No Regrets if you delurk, you’ll experience a great Freedom from lurking, when you Delurk. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant…

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Miliband is still odds-on to become next PM

Miliband is still odds-on to become next PM

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Latest next PM betting odds EdM tight odds-on favourite Theresa May 16/1 Boris & Yvette 20/1 pic.twitter.com/RTnBitTLSd — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 27, 2013 17 months left to go before GE2015 I don’t think any of these are a good bet at this stage. There’s a lot of water to run under the bridge. The only certainty is that the date in the fixed term parliament act for the next general election is May 7th 2015. It’s possible that the coalition…

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UKIP within 5 points of taking Thanet South according to new constituency poll. CON slips from 1st to 3rd

UKIP within 5 points of taking Thanet South according to new constituency poll. CON slips from 1st to 3rd

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The first of 8 seat specific surveys funded by a UKIP donor Today marks the start of a new GE2015 polling series funded by UKIP donor, Alan Bown. These will be published in the coming weeks and will look at LAB-CON marginals where UKIP may be a factor in the 2015 general election. These are the only ­ constituency specific polls to be published so far during this election cycle (the Ashcroft marginals polling combined constituencies which were not broken…

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