On the Betfair exchange punters are rating a victory for YES in the #IndyRef at 18.9pc

On the Betfair exchange punters are rating a victory for YES in the #IndyRef at 18.9pc

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On this big day for #IndyRef Betfair punters put the chance of Winning YES vote at 18.9% See chart pic.twitter.com/6wNdGL5zR3 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 26, 2013 Producer @amberskynews holds Scotland's Future in her arms pic.twitter.com/P0s3Vl7v6O — Adam Boulton (@adamboultonSKY) November 26, 2013 But the Bank of England remains the lender of last resort SNP White Paper on what might kinda happen when banks go phut pic.twitter.com/ImQMRgp9Qu h/t @EdConwaySky — Sam Coates Times (@SamCoatesTimes) November 26, 2013

Thanet South could see CON to UKIP tactical voting to stop LAB

Thanet South could see CON to UKIP tactical voting to stop LAB

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The stage is set surely for Nigel Farage to become an MP Big GE2015 news has been the announcement by Thanet South MP, Laura Sandys, that she’s going to stand down at the general election. She won the seat from LAB in 2010 and, as the chart shows, had a pretty comfortable majority. Add on the expected first time incumbency bonus and it looked relatively safe. That’s all changed with her announcement. Nigel Farage had already indicated that the seat…

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The Tories get 3pc closer in the ComRes phone poll for the Indy

The Tories get 3pc closer in the ComRes phone poll for the Indy

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Most see the blues as being for the rich The monthly phone poll by ComRes for the Indy is just out and has the Tories up 4 on the very low 28% recorded in October. This move is greater than the margin of error . But CON strategists might be concerned that the move back to the Tories has not been at the expense of Labour which also moves up. To have any chance of coming out with most seats…

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Tessa Jowell becomes the opening favourite in new market on the LAB candidate to contest the 2016 London Mayoral election

Tessa Jowell becomes the opening favourite in new market on the LAB candidate to contest the 2016 London Mayoral election

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pic.twitter.com/6Qviv6ewle — PolPics (@PolPics) November 25, 2013 Has she got what it takes to win the massive primary? After the general election the biggest UK election from a betting perspective has traditionally been the battle to win the London Mayoralty. There have been four elections since the post was created in 2000 and each has attracted a lot of betting interest. This is massive with a potential electorate of 6m. So far two of the elections have resulted in two…

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Hopi Sen is right: The 2010 LDs now saying don’t know could be crucial and need to be looked at

Hopi Sen is right: The 2010 LDs now saying don’t know could be crucial and need to be looked at

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Markedly more in the marginals have made up their minds We’ve talked a lot on PB about the 2010 LDs who’ve switched to LAB but that is not the whole picture as ex-Labour staffer blogger Hopi Sen notes. In an interesting post he highlights a significant group of voters who hardly get any attention to – the 2010 LDs who now say don’t know. He writes:- These people are not non-voters. They voted. They’re just not sure if, or how,…

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Ladbrokes report that 94pc of all bets on the Scottish #IndyRef have been on NO

Ladbrokes report that 94pc of all bets on the Scottish #IndyRef have been on NO

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New #IndyRef poll from Hexham-based Panelbase for S Times poll puts Yes 38% No 47%. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 24, 2013 I’m still not convinced that NO is a certainty A few days ago I posted that I wasn’t following the gamblers who have been piling onto NO in the Scots IndyRef because I still think there’s a chance that YES might happen. I’m not alone. During the week Alistair Carmichael, the tough talking LD MP who has recently…

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So far, at least, it is hard to discern a Falkirk or Flowers effect in YouGov’s daily polls

So far, at least, it is hard to discern a Falkirk or Flowers effect in YouGov’s daily polls

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The YouGov/Sunday Times has Con 33% Lab 40% LD9% UKIP 11% So no sign that the Flowers story or Falkirk is impinging on LAB position — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 24, 2013 Labour’s share continues to be very stable Generally pollsters ask the voting intention questioning first before moving on to other issues because they don’t want the process of the polling itself to impact on the voting responses. It has been shown that you can influence voting responses if the question is asked…

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New GE2015 projection from Oxford’s Dr Stephen Fisher points to a 48pc chance of a CON majority

New GE2015 projection from Oxford’s Dr Stephen Fisher points to a 48pc chance of a CON majority

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A month ago the Oxford University political scientist, Dr Stephen Fish, produced his first projection for GE2015 in which he suggested that the Tories had a 57% chance of an overall majority. He’s now produced a follow-up that has a slightly reduced chance of a CON majority – 48%. In terms of seats the Fisher projection has:- Forecast Election Day Seats Con : 323 Lab : 280 LD : 20 Con largest party, but short of a majority by 3…

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