A month ago the Oxford University political scientist, Dr Stephen Fish, produced his first projection for GE2015 in which he suggested that the Tories had a 57% chance of an overall majority.
He’s now produced a follow-up that has a slightly reduced chance of a CON majority – 48%.
In terms of seats the Fisher projection has:-
Forecast Election Day Seats
Con : 323
Lab : 280
LD : 20
Con largest party, but short of a majority by 3
The main driver of the Fisher analysis is what has happened in the past with opinion polls. Labour has tended to be over-stated and there has been a swing-back to the government.
He does not take into account the fact the current government is a coalition nor that polling methodologies have changed dramatically in the past decade.
My view remains: An analysis of GE2105 has to factor in what has happened to the 2010 LDs – a significant proportion of whom are now saying LAB.
There are few precedents that we can fall back for the coming election. We are in a totally new situation.
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