New GE2015 projection from Oxford’s Dr Stephen Fisher points to a 48pc chance of a CON majority

New GE2015 projection from Oxford’s Dr Stephen Fisher points to a 48pc chance of a CON majority

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A month ago the Oxford University political scientist, Dr Stephen Fish, produced his first projection for GE2015 in which he suggested that the Tories had a 57% chance of an overall majority. He’s now produced a follow-up that has a slightly reduced chance of a CON majority – 48%. In terms of seats the Fisher projection has:- Forecast Election Day Seats Con : 323 Lab : 280 LD : 20 Con largest party, but short of a majority by 3…

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The Co-Op in crisis – what now?

The Co-Op in crisis – what now?

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pic.twitter.com/1QxbzvUsgS — PolPics (@PolPics) November 22, 2013 Will the LAB links be another casualty of the Flowers scandal? The scandal surrounding Paul Flowers has had plenty to keep the media entertained: drugs, sex, money, power and the fall from grace not just of a preacher-politician but also, and in parallel, that of the bank he once headed.  However, while the human interest may lie in the man, the longer term political consequences of the events lie with the questions that…

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Local By-Election Results : November 21st 2013

Local By-Election Results : November 21st 2013

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Pontrilas on Herefordshire (Con Defence) Result: It’s Our County 429 (47% +26%), Indepdenent 261 (28% -5%), Conservative 229 (25% -21%) It’s Our County GAIN from Conservative on a swing of 16% from Ind to IOC (24% from Con to IOC) Conservatives LOSE overall control of Herefordshire County Council Golcar on Kirklees (Lab Defence) Result: Liberal Democrat 1,591 (48% +12% on 2012), Labour 901 (27% -13% on 2012), United Kingdom Independence Party 450 (13%), Green 210 (6% -5% on 2012), Conservative 189…

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Exactly six months to go: The EU elections that could make or break UKIP

Exactly six months to go: The EU elections that could make or break UKIP

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Latest EP2014 odds. UKIP now 11/10 favourites to win most votes pic.twitter.com/ldAe5G0BZA — PolPics (@PolPics) November 22, 2013 But why the absence of polling? On May 22nd next year the whole of the UK will be voting in the elections for the European Parliament yet there’s been very little media coverage and almost no polling. Whilst we have eight or nine Westminster VI polls a week you have to go back until early October to find the last EP2014 survey….

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Henry G Manson on Dave and green policy

Henry G Manson on Dave and green policy

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http://t.co/OxTRsJxzZB pic.twitter.com/iypuzRp11P — PolPics (@PolPics) November 22, 2013 Was this a ‘Ratner’ moment for the PM? Gerald Ratner once famously described his jewellery as “total crap” in an after-dinner speech before seeing the remarks picked up in the press. He mocked his own products and in doing so he fatally undermined his relationship with his customers, which led to a collapse in the businesses’ fortunes. The Sun’s front page report that Cameron is said to be going around Number 10…

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Local By-Election Preview : November 21st 2013

Local By-Election Preview : November 21st 2013

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Pontrilas on Herefordshire (Con Defence) Result of last election (2011): Con 30, Ind 23, Lib Dem 3, Lab 1, Green 1 (Conservative overall majority of 2) Result of ward at last election (2011): Con 728 (46%), Ind 515 (33%), IOC 337 (21%) Candidates duly nominated: Elaine Godding (Ind), Jon Norris (It’s Our County), Elissa Swinglehurst (Con) For a profile of this county’s past elections, please see my posting for November 7th 2013 Golcar on Kirklees (Lab Defence) Result of last…

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At GE2010 incumbent CON incumbents performed better than their party by an average 0.3 pc

At GE2010 incumbent CON incumbents performed better than their party by an average 0.3 pc

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I back call by @ATCooperNo10, co-founder of British Polling Council & ex No10 that the CON incumbency polling be published — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 21, 2013 First time incumbents saw a bigger boost 1.6% The above data is from a post-GE2010 analysis by Prof John Curtice, Dr Stephen Fisher and Dr Rob Ford and shows how CON incumbents did compared to the overall increase in the party’s GB vote share. As can be seen the biggest increase was by…

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LAB YouGov lead back up to 8pc but Dave retains his 11pc “Best PM” lead

LAB YouGov lead back up to 8pc but Dave retains his 11pc “Best PM” lead

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So it’s back to where we were This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun suggests that yesterday’s 4% CON deficit might have been a blip though all changes are within the margin of error. We also have the latest YouGov “Best PM” tracker which sees 34% saying Cameron and 23% saying EdM – both down one point. 95% of CON voters named Dave while 63% of LAB ones named Ed – findings that will continue to give hope to the…

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