If anything UKIP ‘s poll shares have edged up over the past month

If anything UKIP ‘s poll shares have edged up over the past month

And next week GE2015 will be only 17 months away

Perhaps the biggest question hanging over the GE2015 outcome is how big will UKIP’s share be on the day. Although the party is attracting support across the board the general view is that the Tories will be damaged the most.

    By the same argument the more the UKIP share slips back then the better it should be for the blue team

The real answer is that we don’t know. The only times that UKIP has peaked before have been in the months before and after the EU elections. By the autumn conference season they’ve faded in the past and at GE2010 came out with 3.1%.

I find it hard seeing them below 5%. They are getting better organised with more members and having consistently good Thursday local by-election nights.

What they really want is a spectacular Westminster by-election success in the period between EP2014 and GE2015. That would demonstrate real traction.

The problem is that MPs have become much healthier and there have been few by-elections apart from those caused by the actions of the courts.

Mike Smithson

Blogging from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble since 2004

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