UKIP within 5 points of taking Thanet South according to new constituency poll. CON slips from 1st to 3rd

UKIP within 5 points of taking Thanet South according to new constituency poll. CON slips from 1st to 3rd

The first of 8 seat specific surveys funded by a UKIP donor

Today marks the start of a new GE2015 polling series funded by UKIP donor, Alan Bown.

These will be published in the coming weeks and will look at LAB-CON marginals where UKIP may be a factor in the 2015 general election.

    These are the only ­ constituency specific polls to be published so far during this election cycle (the Ashcroft marginals polling combined constituencies which were not broken out individually).

The Thanet South survey is being released now because the seat has had a lot of attention with the incumbent CON MP saying she’ll step down at GE2015 and the reported interest of Nigel Farage.

As well as normal voting intention questions, Survation included key questions such as “imagine for a moment that UKIP were not standing in your constituency; which other party would you then vote for” to examine where UKIP votes could be re-distributed if UKIP were not a factor.

Also included, the “main reason for wanting to vote for that party” – looking within each parties for voting motivation – are UKIP voters simply protesting?

Finally, Survation asked UKIP voters the “Ed Miliband Prime Minister” question – whether a voter would rather vote UKIP than Conservative, even if that meant Ed Miliband becoming Prime Minister or would they vote instead Conservative in order to stop Ed Miliband from becoming Prime Minister.

Constituency polling is extremely challenging for the pollster and is very expensive to carry out. Generally sample sizes are small because the overall pool is not that large.

Overall the picture doesn’t look good for the Tories. Not only are they in third place the other findings suggest that the idea that UKIP voters are just Tories on holiday isn’t really supported.

Ladbrokes have LAB in Thanet South at 7/2 which looks like a fantastic bet.

Mike Smithson

Blogging from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble since 2004

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