At GE2010 incumbent CON incumbents performed better than their party by an average 0.3 pc

At GE2010 incumbent CON incumbents performed better than their party by an average 0.3 pc

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I back call by @ATCooperNo10, co-founder of British Polling Council & ex No10 that the CON incumbency polling be published — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 21, 2013 First time incumbents saw a bigger boost 1.6% The above data is from a post-GE2010 analysis by Prof John Curtice, Dr Stephen Fisher and Dr Rob Ford and shows how CON incumbents did compared to the overall increase in the party’s GB vote share. As can be seen the biggest increase was by…

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LAB YouGov lead back up to 8pc but Dave retains his 11pc “Best PM” lead

LAB YouGov lead back up to 8pc but Dave retains his 11pc “Best PM” lead

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So it’s back to where we were This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun suggests that yesterday’s 4% CON deficit might have been a blip though all changes are within the margin of error. We also have the latest YouGov “Best PM” tracker which sees 34% saying Cameron and 23% saying EdM – both down one point. 95% of CON voters named Dave while 63% of LAB ones named Ed – findings that will continue to give hope to the…

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Nighthawks is now open

Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. To you lurkers, why not delurk. Lurking, is Another World to posting, I, Believe, your contributions will be enhance PB, Hopefully this will Galvanise you to delurk. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) PMQs verdict: Ed Miliband came prepared for a “nightmare” – and duly…

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LAB majority odd tighten. Hung parliament remains favourite

LAB majority odd tighten. Hung parliament remains favourite

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A LAB majority now a 38.5% chance on Betfair – up 3% in a week Hung parliament at 39.1% still favourite pic.twitter.com/l0bwq66tJr — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 20, 2013 There’s been a move back to a LAB majority on the Betfair GE2015 outcome market. The price had moved in by about 3% in the past two days. A hung parliament remains the favourite. The chart above is from the Betfair exchange and covers a period of about 3 years. Unfortunately there…

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Some brighter polling news for the Tories – today’s YouGov has the LAB lead down to just 4pc

Some brighter polling news for the Tories – today’s YouGov has the LAB lead down to just 4pc

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But is it blip or start of a trend? After a dark November of polls for the Tories YouGov today gives them their best figures of the month. Like all such moves we have to be careful before jumping to conclusions. It might just be a blip or it could be a first indicator that the better economic news is beginning to resonate. Dave Cameron and his team will surely be hoping for the latter. Interestingly the proportion of 2010…

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Nighthawks is now open

Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation If you’re going to be Up All Night, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. To you lurkers, If You Ever contemplated delurking tonight, why not delurk tonight, It’s Alright, to delurk, hopefully lurkers all Around The World, will delurk tonight. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) The Tory disease Boles’s call…

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The answer to Ben Brogan’s point about why in current context the Tories are doing badly is here from the August Ipsos-MORI poll

The answer to Ben Brogan’s point about why in current context the Tories are doing badly is here from the August Ipsos-MORI poll

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Telegraph's Ben Brogan says q not why LAB doing well, but why CON badly? http://t.co/stEH68O5IM See this Aug 1/2 pic.twitter.com/NPiPYxk9LD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2013 And this on EdM & LAB from same Ipsos-MORI poll in August CON liked a lot less than LAB pic.twitter.com/32CRpINKW8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2013 The ANTI-CON tribe is bigger than the PRO-CON one As can be seen the Tories have a net minus 19% on the like/dislike question. Labour by contrast…

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The Sykes donation puts up the stakes for Farage at EURO2014 – any less than 1st place will be a failure

The Sykes donation puts up the stakes for Farage at EURO2014 – any less than 1st place will be a failure

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With the cash & all the coverage UKIP have to succeed For a party that doesn’t have a single MP it’s quite remarkable that UKIP goes into next May’s EU elections as the evens betting favourite to come out top on votes. The Sykes donation on top of the extraordinary level of coverage for Farage, have simply added to the expectations and the party simply has to come top. Receiving a few million pounds from a Yorkshire tycoon has its…

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